Cigar Mile fair odds: Time to take a flyer in wide-open affair

I'm generally a big believer in Grade 1 horses winning Grade 1 races, so maybe the Cigar Mile being a Grade 2 is a good time to take a flyer on a veteran gelding trying stakes company for the first time.

That especially makes sense given that the field is collectively 0 for its last 19 Grade 1 races while five for 22 in other graded stakes, hardly a stat that inspires fear in any handicapper thinking a "new shooter" to the stakes ranks can be in the mix here.

No. 9 Castle Chaos is 30-1 on the morning line. I really don't see him drifting lower than 20-1, so I'm pretty comfortable that I'll get my 10-1 fair odds price, which makes him an obvious win bet.

As you would expect with a 30-1 morning line, there are some negatives. We touched on the gelding's lack of stakes experience already, but it's also worth noting that trainer Robert Falcone is riding a 25-race losing streak in graded stakes, with only one second and one third from all those starts.

On the positive side, though, this son of Palace Malice won at this track and distance last out, picks up jockey Dylan Davis and totes 116 pounds compared to 119 to 123 for the other contenders.

Of the more logical horses based on expected price at post time, I like no. 2 Everso Mischievous best. Like my "top pick" he won at this track and distance last out to extend his win streak to three for top connections. I like the trip he projects to use his tactical speed from the inside to secure a good position.

No. 3 Senor Buscador was a horse I was interested in at a big price in the Breeders' Cup Classic, but he's the morning-line favorite here and carries high weight of 123 pounds. I just do not see any value there despite a deep respect for his talent.

Betting wise, I'm playing Castle Chaos to win and hooking up with the deuce in the verticals. 

2023 Cigar Mile G2