Lukas fair odds: Most likely winner also has a fair price

I would not think it possible if it were not happening in front of our own eyes, but somehow a Dubai World Cup winner trained by Brad Cox is underrated.

Hit Show was long odds when he won the Grade 1, $12 million Dubai World Cup, and the public has not really warmed to him since. It is understandable that Hit Show was an 11-1 outsider against the likes of Mindframe and Sierra Leone in the Stephen Foster (G1), but 7-5 as the second choice against Not This Boy in the West Virginia Governor's Cup at Mountaineer was preposterous.

I do not think he will be as extreme an overlay in the Grade 2 Lukas Classic on Saturday at Churchill Downs despite being a longer price, but I do expect that Hit Show will be the play come post time in the 1 1/8-mile, $500,000 race for older horses.

Hit Show won last year's Lukas after winning the West Virginia Governor's Cup in the midst of a four-race win streak that concluded with a Fayette Stakes (G2) score at Keeneland. The goal this year, however, appears to be the Breeders' Cup Classic to complete a never-before-done double of winning the World Cup and Classic in the same calendar year. Cigar, Invasor, Curlin and Arrogate all won the World Cup after winning the Classic.

He appears on a similar trajectory this year, as the Governor's Cup shook off any international travel cobwebs that remained after the Foster. From a Ragozin perspective, he moved forward in his last race and can do so again in the Lukas. Hopefully not too much, though, with the Classic in his sites, but this is an underrated player.

This is no cakewalk, of course. Willy D's, Mystik Dan and Banishing all are serious threats to Hit Show. I just think Hit Show is the most likely winner and will be value against my fair odds.