Fair odds: Change of plans leads to value at Churchill Downs

When the New York Racing Association postponed the Manhattan Stakes from Belmont Stakes day last week, it changed not only the day of the venerable Grade 1 race but also the turf course and distance.

The change in variables was enough for trainer Brian Lynch to decide to keep Susan and Jim Hill's millionaire gelding Highway Robber home for the Chorleywood Stakes at Churchill Downs, where the Hard Spun gelding will get 11 furlongs and possibly firmer going.

Bettors potentially will get value as well, as the 15-1 morning line would offer generous odds on a horse with multiple stakes wins on turf from 10 to 12 furlongs, beating the likes of Utah Beach and Anglophile.

Speaking of those two, they are the horses to beat in here, as Utah Beach in particular comes in off consecutive graded-stakes wins and Anglophile's company lines are strong given a most recent runner-up performance to Far Bridge in the Grade 2 Man o'War Stakes at this distance.

Utah Beach is giving five pounds to most of his rivals, including the uncoupled Lynch-trained entry of Anglophile and Highway Robber. I like Highway Robber's run style a bit better too. Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances identifies their run styles as sustained, or deep closers, but Highway Robber's pace ratings suggest an ability to get into the race a bit earlier. That's an advantage here, given I do not expect the pace to hold up.

Rebel Red is the 3-1 morning-line favorite and an underlay at that price. Obviously the trouble last time is a toss out, but nothing about the previous three efforts suggest he is the most likely winner here.

Highway Robber is a win bet, and if Rebel Red is in fact the favorite then both Utah Beach and Anglophile could be options to use, with Highway Robber as a key horse in exotics.