Chilukki fair odds: New jockey is key for the horse to beat

Hidden Connection brings a seven-race losing streak with her to the Chilukki Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs, but she has never brought Tyler Gaffalione along for the ride, and I expect that to make a big difference.

No disrespect to her previous pilots, all capable journeymen, but Churchill racing analyst Joe Kristufek does not call Gaffalione "Mr. November" for nothing. No. 3 Hidden Connection in capable hands and, given a trip that projects to be right behind a pressured Hot and Sultry from the outside post, she is the most likely winner.

As for Hot and Sultry, she's certainly the primary danger here, with the wildcard being what Oeuvre does in her return to dirt after two turf tries. Depending on the answer, that could leave Hot and Sultry alone on the front end, which would improve her chances.

I most expect Hidden Connection to offer value, as I just can't see her being lower than my 2-1 threshold, even with Gaffalione aboard. If she were to be underlaid then that certainly would make either Oeuvre or Hot and Sultry the play. From a multi-race standpoint, Hidden Connection is a single.