Fair odds: Two Sharp is too sharp for Chilukki field

The expectations for Two Sharp have been sky high from the jump.

Owner Richard Rigney went to $925,000 to acquire the Twirling Candy filly at the 2022 Keeneland September yearling sale, and the money has kept flowing through the windows as she has been odds-on in all four career starts.

That figures to continue Saturday at Churchill Downs when she faces seven others in the Grade 3 Chilukki Stakes for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, at a one-turn mile.

I hope the trend of her being odds-on discontinues because I think she offers value at odds on. There is no reason to think she cannot blitz this field from post 4 with the added benefit of carrying low weight against stakes winners, 118 pounds versus 121) She wins this race half the time.

If Two Sharp ends up overbet, then I would expect one of Pigalle, Taxed, Oeuvre or Fancy to offer value. I'd be most interested in Ouevre, who has done well on both turf and dirt. The main-track efforts offer real excitement against these, and her effort in this race last year was solid behind a runaway winner.

My only complete toss from this group is Imonra. I realize those could be famous last words given more than capable connections, but I have to draw the line somewhere.

With the Chilukki being race 8 of 11, we'll have a sense for how it is being bet via the races 7-8 doubles, which is when the late Pick 5 begins. I anticipate singling Two Sharp in that Pick 5 and will adapt based on the board in the Pick 4 and vertically. If Ouevre is not the second or third choice, then I will plan to key her with the favorite and using her on backup multi-race tickets.