Chicago fair odds: Look under the radar at Churchill Downs

The Grade 2 Chicago Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs is so competitive, I could make a case for eight of the 11 fillies and mares entered into the seven-furlong race on the main track.

When not much separates the top contenders in my mind, and in this case when there are so many contenders, I let the tote board do the work for me. I suspect that will lead to Harbor Springs and Pigalle in this $300,000 race.

Harbor Springs had a rough trip when favored Kentucky Derby week, and made an earlier move than usual to get into contention, dulling her typically potent closing kick. With speed to her inside here, the 20-1 morning line a fair price to see if a clean trip and a target is enough to reverse her fortune.

Pigalle ran in to some buzzsaws to close out her season last year but returned in fine form three weeks ago. She is a threat here with any improvement. 12-1 morning line a fair price.

Of course, we'd be remiss not to mention the likely two favorites: Emery and last year's Chicago winner Vahva. Both are on three-race losing streaks but have generally faced tougher and have the overall best races. It is understandable that they will take money, but it's just too much money for my tastes. I am going to try to beat both of them.

The outside three horses – My Mane Squeeze, Claret Beret and Zeitlos –are dangerous at better prices than the favored pair. I will use them in bets with Harbor Springs and Pigalle if the exacta will pays entice.