Check out new choices (and old ones) in Kentucky Derby odds

Something was up with Prime Factor. The first sign came Friday, less than 24 hours before his six-furlong debut at Gulfstream Park.

That day before his geared-down, 8 3/4-length debut victory, his offshore odds to win the 2021 Kentucky Derby suddenly plunged to 33-1 from 200-1.

Someone knew something.

Within minutes of his victory Saturday, Prime Factor shortened at Circa Sports in Las Vegas from 200-1 to 30-1. On Sunday, he opened at William Hill at 50-1.

Back at that offshore book, his odds dropped again, to 20-1. So much for 200-1 that presumably one bettor grabbed Friday. What did that whale see in Prime Factor?

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Maybe it went beyond the bloodlines, by Quality Road out of a Bernardini mare. Or beyond trainer Todd Pletcher, he of two Kentucky Derby victories in the ’10s. Or the $900,000 auction price. Or that the buyers were WinStar Farm and China Horse Club, the primary partners in the 2018 Triple Crown campaign of Justify.

Or maybe it was just all that.

Two debutants in the same race — runner-up Bracken and fourth-place Broadway — saw their odds drift after they opened last week at Circa. Bracken went from 100-1 to 250-1; Broadway from 150-1 to 200-1.

A dozen other 2-year-olds also were late additions to the Derby futures in Las Vegas.

Witsel (75-1 William Hill). Nothing grabs the attention of a futures writer like a lopsided victory, even if it was only in a $20,000 maiden race. This colt, sired by 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist and trained by Carlos Muñoz, won his first start Wednesday at Tampa Bay Downs by 13 1/4 lengths. The winning time of 1:10.24 for the six furlongs merited a Beyer Speed Figure of 85, the same as Prime Factor got three days later for his triumph.

Donegal Bay (100-1 William Hill). This stablemate of Prime Factor was four months removed from his out-of-the-money debut at Saratoga. The Uncle Mo gelding out of an Empire Maker mare set the pace Saturday and broke his maiden at 3-2 odds in a one-turn mile at Gulfstream Park. His 83 Beyer might not go to the top of his résumé, but the fact that he is from the Pletcher barn will get him some attention.

Risk Taking (85-1 Circa, 135-1 William Hill) and Rock Sugar (150-1 Circa). Added distance was just what trainer Chad Brown ordered for Risk Taking. After out-of-the-money failures at six furlongs on dirt and 1 1/16 miles on the turf, this pace-chasing $240,000 Medaglia d’Oro colt broke through Sunday over 1 1/8 miles on the main track at Aqueduct. He won by 2 1/4 lengths over Rock Sugar. The Frosted colt trained by Bill Mott broke poorly but fought back to take the lead going into the far turn. He finally relinquished it in the last 100 yards, leaving him 0-for-4 since his summertime debut on the turf at Saratoga.

Manor House (100-1 Circa). Another first-out win by double digits came to the attention of Las Vegas. This was by 12 1/4 lengths in a one-turn mile Saturday at Laurel Park. Trained by Mike Stidham and ridden by Víctor Carrasco, the colt by Upstart out of a Dixie Union mare finished the race unhurried in 1:38.31.

Medina Spirit (100-1 Circa) and Democrat (175-1 Circa). Two horses from Bob Baffert’s stable made their debuts in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden race Friday at Los Alamitos. With Abel Cedillo riding, the Protonico colt Medina Spirit pulled away to a three-length victory. Democrat was the beaten 5-2 favorite. With Drayden Van Dyke riding, the Candy Ride colt finished fifth, never closer than 5 1/2 lengths at any call.

Excellent Timing (125-1 William Hill). A maiden-breaking 7 1/4-length win as an odds-on favorite Thursday at Aqueduct put this colt on the futures map. By Not This Time out of a Pioneerof the Nile mare and trained by Charlton Baker, he drew off under a hand ride by Joel Rosario to a winning time of 1:18.21 for the 6 1/2 furlongs. It was his second start; he had been the runner-up as the favorite in an October sprint at Belmont Park.

Lemon Pop (125-1 William Hill). This 2-for-2 Godolphin colt trained by Hiroyasu Tanaka opened in Las Vegas two weeks after winning the first race on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby. By Lemon Drop Kid out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, his Cattleya Stakes score came three weeks after he broke his maiden. Racing over a dirt mile late last month at Tokyo, his time of 1:36.4 was clocked without a run-up out of the gate. So was his 59.6-second time for the first five furlongs.

Willy Boi (150-1 William Hill) and Proud Contender (150-1 William Hill). This pair finished one-two in a six-furlong maiden race Thursday at Gulfstream Park. Willy Boi, a Jeff Engler-trained gelding by Uncaptured, set the pace and won his debut by a half-length in a time of 1:11.71. Proud Contender, an 0-for-2 colt sired by Jess’s Dream and trained by Fernando Abreu, finished second, nine lengths better than the other six starters.

Lord of War (250-1 Circa). Michael Beychok’s wish was Paul Zilm’s command. Beychok, the winner of the 2012 National Horseplayers Championship, told HRN last week that he wanted to see this horse posted somewhere in Las Vegas. Zilm, the risk supervisor and racing specialist at Circa Sports, read the story and accommodated Beychok. The Sky Mesa colt already had made his debut, finishing fourth in a Gulfstream Park turf sprint last Sunday. Beychok hopes trainer Patrick Biancone does with Lord of War what he did with Sole Volante, moving him from the turf to become a graded-stakes winner on the dirt.

Following are all the horses listed at Circa Sports and William Hill Nevada in their Kentucky Derby futures:

Circa  WH

350-1 500-1 Advance Cash

200-1 150-1 Al Heybay

  85-1          Alexander Valley

200-1 150-1 All Mo

150-1 150-1 Ambivalent

125-1           American Admiral

250-1 200-1 Ampersand

250-1 135-1 Angkor

100-1           Arabian Prince

100-1 150-1 Ascot Storm

250-1 175-1 Awesome Gerry

250-1           Baafeed

250-1 250-1 Basso

100-1           Beatbox

100-1 125-1 Beep Beep

100-1 150-1 Belafonte

200-1 175-1 Big Daddy

200-1 200-1 Big Flame

200-1 150-1 Blue Gator

200-1 150-1 Bob’s Edge

200-1 120-1 Boca Boy

200-1 125-1 Bolden

100-1 140-1 Bold Minister

200-1 200-1 Boomer

250-1           Bracken

100-1 150-1 Breeze On By

200-1           Broadway

100-1   85-1 Brooklyn Strong

  50-1   40-1 Caddo River

100-1 150-1 Cajun Commander

100-1 100-1 Calibrate

200-1 175-1 Camp Hope

  75-1   75-1 Cazadero

200-1 125-1 Chicks For Free

300-1           Civil War

  75-1   35-1 Classier

100-1 175-1 Cousin Larry

300-1           Crazy Shot

300-1 200-1 Dalton

450-1           Dayoutoftheoffice

200-1           Democrat

          100-1 Donegal Bay

  75-1   50-1 Dr. Schivel

200-1           Dreamer’s Disease

250-1           Drop Anchor

200-1           Dynamic One

250-1           Dyn O Mite

200-1 120-1 Eagle Orb

          100-1 Editor in Chief

100-1 100-1 Effinity

200-1           Engrave

400-1 300-1 Erawan

  15-1    8-1 Essential Quality

100-1 125-1 Ethical Judgement

100-1 125-1 Eucharist

          125-1 Excellent Timing

250-1 250-1 Famous Gent

100-1 150-1 Fauci

200-1           Find New Roads

100-1 100-1 Founder

200-1 120-1 Freedom Fighter

200-1 150-1 Fury Kap

150-1 120-1 Gagetown

100-1 175-1 Garoppolo

  75-1   75-1 Get Her Number

200-1           Ghazaaly

500-1           Girl Daddy

200-1 125-1 Girther

125-1           Golden Pal

125-1   80-1 Greatest Honour

125-1 150-1 Hendavid

125-1 150-1 Hendrick

200-1 250-1 Hercules

125-1 140-1 Herd Immunity

125-1 100-1 Hidden Stash

  35-1   40-1 Highly Motivated

100-1 150-1 Highway Bound

150-1 110-1 Hold The Salsa

200-1           Hopkins

250-1 200-1 Horn Of Plenty

  45-1   50-1 Hot Rod Charlie

100-1   75-1 Huntsinger

100-1 100-1 Hyperfocus

100-1 175-1 Inspector Frost

250-1 160-1 Isolate    

300-1 250-1 It Can Be Done

  45-1   40-1 Jackie’s Warrior

  60-1   75-1 Jaxon Traveler

100-1 125-1 Judge N Jury

  35-1   50-1 Keepmeinmind

100-1 140-1 Kenny Had A Notion

100-1 125-1 King Fury

175-1 125-1 Known Agenda

150-1 150-1 Kwist

200-1           Lamutanaatty

          125-1 Lemon Pop

100-1           Lidstrom

    9-1   10-1 Life Is Good

200-1 130-1 Likeable

200-1 225-1 Lookin For Trouble

250-1           Lord of War

200-1 150-1 Lugamo

  55-1   75-1 Mandaloun

100-1           Manor House

100-1 100-1 Medina Spirit

  60-1   75-1 Midnight Bourbon

300-1 250-1 Momos

  60-1   75-1 Mutasaabeq

100-1           Never Surprised

100-1 125-1 Next

100-1 125-1 No Cents

200-1           North Pole

300-1           Notable Exception

300-1           Notary

200-1 150-1 Nova Rags

  45-1   50-1 Olympiad

250-1           Oncoming Train

  90-1   90-1 Parnelli

250-1 150-1 Pickin’ Time

250-1           Pico d’Oro

200-1 125-1 Poppy’s Pride

200-1 150-1 Positivity

  30-1   50-1 Prime Factor

100-1 125-1 Prisoner

          150-1 Proud Contender

200-1 140-1 Raison d’Air

200-1 250-1 Real Talk

  35-1   35-1 Red Flag

100-1 100-1 Reinvestment Risk

100-1 150-1 Restored Order

100-1 125-1 Return The Ring

  85-1 135-1 Risk Taking

150-1           Rock Sugar

200-1 125-1 Roderick

  70-1 100-1 Rombauer

200-1           Rosenquist

200-1 150-1 Run Snappy

200-1 150-1 Saffa’s Day

100-1   90-1 Santa Cruiser

  60-1   50-1 Savile Row

200-1           Scarlet Fusion

100-1 100-1 Scarred

200-1 250-1 Schnell

200-1 175-1 Seazan

125-1 120-1 Seminole Beach

200-1           Shaftesbury

  70-1 150-1 Sittin On Go

100-1 125-1 Slashing

  70-1   75-1 Smiley Sobotka

200-1 140-1 Sonic Brees

200-1 175-1 Son Of A Beast

150-1 140-1 Sound The Charge

  75-1   80-1 Speaker’s Corner

  70-1   75-1 Spielberg

100-1 125-1 Starrininmydreams

100-1   75-1 Stayin’ Out Late

300-1 250-1 Superman Shaq

  90-1 100-1 Super Stock

100-1 125-1 Swiftsure

100-1 100-1 Swill

100-1 140-1 Swot Analysis

300-1 225-1 Tacoflavoredkisses

100-1   90-1 Team Merchants

100-1   75-1 Ten For Ten

100-1           Tenor

  85-1 100-1 Therideofalifetime

200-1 150-1 Thranduil

300-1 200-1 Tiz Handsome

100-1 150-1 Tiz Mandate

300-1           Touchdown Brown

100-1 125-1 Twilight Blue

200-1 200-1 Ultimate Badger

100-1 160-1 Uno

200-1 175-1 Upstriker

300-1 500-1 Valiant Thor

400-1           Vequist

  65-1   60-1 Vittorio

200-1 140-1 Waist Deep

          150-1 Warrior’s Pride

200-1 150-1 Waspirant

200-1 150-1 Weston

          125-1 Weyburn

300-1 200-1 What’s Up Surfer

100-1 100-1 Whiskey Double

         150-1 Willy Boi

           75-1 Witsel

200-1 150-1 Work Out

150-1 200-1 Wyfire

150-1 175-1 Xtreme Mayhem