Champagne Stakes 2023: Odds and analysis for BC qualifier

The Grade 1, $500,000 Champagne Stakes drew a field of eight who will race a one-turn mile Saturday as part of the Belmont at the Big A meeting. In addition to the purse money, the 2-year-olds will compete for a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile along with qualifying points for the 2024 Kentucky Derby.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Champagne Stakes with morning-line odds provided by the Horse Racing Nation staff. The Champagne is set as race 8 on the 11-race card that has six graded stakes. The eighth race post time is scheduled for 4:22 p.m. EDT.

1. Air Cav, 12-1. Mitole – Brad Cox / Dylan Davis – 1: 1-0-0 - $20,400. Air Cav was a debut winner at the end of August at Horseshoe Indiana in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint beating a field of six by a neck as the even-money favorite. He was a $125,000 yearling purchase for Calumet Farm. Trainer Brad Cox is looking to win the Champagne for the first time. Toss.

2. Dancing Groom, 12-1. Vino Rosso – Antonio Sano / Trevor McCarthy – 2: 1-0-0 - $58,380. Dancing Groom broke his maiden in his second try at Saratoga by five lengths in a race that was meant for the turf but was run at a mile on a fast track against a field of nine. He was bet down to 9-2, rallied from behind and got clear of the field at the sixteenth pole. He sold as a 2-year-old at Ocala in March for $60,000. Toss.

3. Timberlake, 7-2. Into Mischief – Brad Cox / Florent Geroux – 3: 1-1-0 - $100,600. Timberlake broke his maiden by more than nine lengths in his second try at Ellis Park in July going seven furlongs. He then moved to Saratoga to prepare for the Hopeful (G1), where he had more of a stalking trip and finished second after briefly having the lead in the stretch. He is also entered in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland on Saturday and has been working in Kentucky. Win contender.

4. General Partner, 9-2. Speightstown – Chad Brown / Manny Franco – 2: 1-0-0 - $64,050. General Partner was purchased for $250,000 as a weanling. He got his maiden win in his second start at Saratoga going seven furlongs when he broke quickly, got to the lead and drew off to beat a field of 10 by four lengths. His 92 Beyer Speed Figure was the ninth fastest for any juvenile in 2023. Trainer Chad Brown won the Champagne four times, including the last two years with Blazing Sevens and Jack Christopher. Win contender.

5. El Grande O, 8-1. Take Charge Indy – Linda Rice / Kendrick Carmouche – 6: 2-3-1 - $204,000. El Grande O is a New York-bred who was bred by Stonewall Farm and is owned by Barry Schwartz. He ran five times against state-breds, breaking his maiden on the turf, and two weeks ago he won the Bertram F. Bongard on a sloppy track at Aqueduct by more than eight lengths as the odds-on favorite. In his only try against open company he was second on a muddy track in the Skidmore at Saratoga in a race that was scheduled for the turf. Live long shot.

6. Fierceness, 7-5. City of Light – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 1: 1-0-0 - $57,750. Fierceness is owned and was bred by Repole Stable. He debuted at Saratoga at the end of August on a muddy track as the even-money favorite in an eight-horse field. He broke sharply, went right to lead and was geared down as he won the six-furlong sprint by more than 11 lengths with a fast final time and speedy preliminary fractions. He earned the third fastest Beyer Speed Figure for a 2-year-old this year with a 95. Trainer Todd Pletcher won the Champagne six times, including in 2010 with Uncle Mo when he also teamed up with Repole. Top choice.

7. Gold Sweep, 8-1. Speightstown – Steve Asmussen / Jose Lezcano – 4: 1-2-0 - $143,300. Gold Sweep broke his maiden in his second start as the odds-on favorite in the Tremont Stakes at Belmont Park in June. He was second in the Sanford (G3) at Saratoga after breaking badly and rallied six wide. In the Hopeful (G1), he had to steady in the stretch and finished sixth. Trainer Steve Asmussen won the Champagne in 2020 with Jackie’s Warrior. Use underneath.

8. Sweet Soddy J, 20-1. Bee Jersey – Raymond Ginter Jr. / Jose Gomez – 3: 2-0-1 - $80,000. Sweet Soddy J won his first two starts, a maiden claiming victory at Colonial Downs in August followed by the Timonium Juvenile where he had to steady twice and still won by three lengths. Three weeks later he travelled to Presque Isle Downs and was third on the Tapeta surface going 6 1/2 furlongs again. Toss.

Summary: The word was out about Fierceness at Saratoga on Aug. 25 when he was heavily bet to be the even-money favorite as the Repole Stable home-bred went right to the lead on a muddy track, drew off with ease, and was geared down to win by 11 1/4 lengths. Stretching out to the one-turn mile is ideal for his second start. His sire City of Light won the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, and his dam is by the Travers (G1) winner Stay Thirsty.

Fierceness has the look of a Champagne winner with impressive speed and breeding to race longer distances. He is the top choice.