Champagne: How I'm playing Belmont Derby day's late Pick 5
I’m incredibly excited to be back in the fold at Horse Racing Nation. Longtime readers may remember my contributions to the site in 2013 and 2014, and since then, I’m happy to say I’ve done a lot of things for which I’m really proud.
This summer at HRN, I’ll be contributing daily wagering strategies for the now-widely available late Pick 5. It’s a great move by NYRA to open up the low, 15% takeout sequence, especially given the volume of world-class fields that will be assembling over the next few months.
To kick things off, I’ve taken a look at Saturday’s Stars & Stripes Racing Festival sequence featuring four graded stakes races. I’m basing my ticket around what figures to be a popular single and hoping to catch a price or two in the other legs. Let’s get to it!
Race 6: Dwyer Stakes (G3)
I can’t get overly creative here. It certainly seems like most of the betting money will go to the three inside horses, and that’s the trio I’m using to kick things off. It certainly seems like there’s plenty of early speed signed on, and such a scenario may make #3 CODE OF HONOR tough if he’s fully cranked. However, Shug McGaughey is one of the few trainers left not afraid to use a Grade 3 as a prep, and this isn’t the main goal. With that in mind, I’ll also use the returning #1 MIHOS and impressive allowance winner #2 ROWAYTON.
Race 7: Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1)
We start off with a bang, as the Belmont Oaks has drawn a wide-open field. Three months ago, the thought of trying to beat #2 NEWSPAPEROFRECORD seemed preposterous. However, she’s shown some regression from her 2018 form in her two starts this season, so that’s exactly what I’m trying to do.
I’m using her two stablemates, #5 CAFE AMERICANO and #9 CAMBIER PARC, as well as Edgewood (G3) winner #4 CONCRETE ROSE and European invader #1 OLENDON. If we can beat a favorite right away, this could give us instant — and valuable — separation.
Race 8: John A. Nerud Stakes (G2)
Here’s the big question: Can #9 PROMISES FULFILLED get off to a clean start? He’s had gate issues in each of his last three outings, and against the likes of Mitole, that can’t happen. He gets a bit of class relief here, and an uneventful start would certainly make him the horse to beat.
I’m using him, but my top pick is actually #8 PAT ON THE BACK, who’s gotten very good of late for trainer Jeremiah Englehart. He loves Belmont and should get plenty of pace to chase. While he does step up in class for this event, it’s worth noting that he ran OK in last year’s Cigar Mile (G1) against open company. I think a similar effort would be enough to get him to the winner’s circle at a fair price.
Race 9: Belmont Derby Invitational (G1)
The day’s main event is also arguably its toughest race to handicap. I want lots of coverage, and I’ve gone five-deep to get it.
I’m stepping out a bit with my top selection. That’s #9 CAPE OF GOOD HOPE, who misfired at Royal Ascot but ran a good race when fourth in a Group 1 event two starts ago. Europeans getting first-time Lasix are always dangerous, and if he runs back to that effort at Chantilly, I think the Americans will have their hands full.
I’ll also be using #2 STANDARD DEVIATION, #3 SEISMIC WAVE, #12 DEMARCHELIER, and #13 DIGITAL AGE. Standard Deviation is the biggest price of the group, but I’ve been a fan of his for a while and loved how he ran when switched to the turf last time out. His pedigree suggests he wants every bit of this distance, and I’ll be surprised if we get the Chad Brown/Javier Castellano duo at the 15-1 morning line odds.
Race 10: Suburban (G2)
My single comes here, and I’m guessing I’ll be far from alone in that. If #1 CATHOLIC BOY doesn’t win, I don’t know who does. He seems head and shoulders above this group, many of whom are either exiting allowance races or the Brooklyn (G2), which didn’t impress me much. I’ll stand with the favorite here. Hopefully that doesn’t come back to bite me.
My Ticket
R6: 1,2,3
R7: 1,4,5,9
R8: 8,9
R9: 2,3,9,12,13
R10: 1
120 bets at $0.50 = $60