Ky. Derby 2025: Chalk bettors are biggest losers in the draw

The biggest losers from the Kentucky Derby 2025 post-position draw might be fans of no. 8 Journalism, as his ideal post position will not scare any money away and could be the difference between 5-2 and 3-1 as final off odds.

Post position 8 has won four of the last 31 derbies with a second and four thirds. None of those four winners were favored, though Barbaro in 2006 probably should have been over Sweetnorthernsaint, and Mine That Bird was an incredible 50.6-to-1. The chart below looks at each Derby horse in post 8 since 1994. The favorites were Indian Charlie and Dialed In.

All this is not to say that post 8 upgrades Journalism's already good chance, just that it certainly is not any downgrade, and any response from bettors would be support. Is he still worth a bet? I'm less bullish at 5-2, which is why I don't love the post being so good, but no way would I toss him at that price.

The biggest loser was No. 20 Owen Almighty. Granted, I did not give him much of a chance anyway, but whether they plan to send or rate the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner, post 20 is not going to be to jockey Javier Castellano's benefit. Similarly, No. 1 Citizen Bull and No. 2 Neoequos are hampered by inside posts. Neither needs the lead, but extreme post positions, inside or outside, in a 20-horse race leave even less margin for error. Below are post-positions statistic for the Kentucky Derby since 1991.