Can your pick win the 2019 Kentucky Derby? Pros and cons

There are at least three types of popular past performances on the market, not to mention sheets, workout video and replays to pour over in the coming days. But whether a horse can win the 2019 Kentucky Derby can often be distilled down to a simple question or two, which is what we’re seeking to do here by listing pros and cons of the current Top 20.

Contenders are listed in order of qualifying points. See a plus or minus in addition to those listed? Let’s hear it in the comments.

Tacitus

Pro: This regally bred colt looked OK at 2, but he has flourished in a pair of races both going longer and with Lasix added at 3. Additionally, Tacitus looks like the best contender offering his stalking running style.

Con: This Derby isn’t expected to set up well for those behind early pressers given an estimated lack of usual race pace. Is he fast enough to get there, or will Tactitus look more like a prototypical Belmont Stakes contender?

Omaha Beach

Pro: Well, this starts with Mike Smith’s decision to remain on board for the first Saturday in May. Smith’s the perfect rider for a horse that has consistently showcased a strong middle move and sustained it across the wire at increasing distances.

Con: The Derby will mark Omaha Beach’s fifth race in his current form cycle dating back to a Jan. 4 maiden special weight race at Santa Anita. How much can he reasonably improve this time…or does he need to?

Vekoma

Pro: A lightly raced May foal, he goes third off the layoff in the Kentucky Derby and could find himself either on the lead or in prime position to get first jump on the pace setter. Then it’s just a matter of whether Vekoma’s good enough.

Con: He won the Blue Grass (G2) going with a pronounced speed bias at Keeneland, and what about that stride? It’s a swimming type of motion many wonder could prohibit him from maintaining speed at 10 furlongs.

Plus Que Parfait

Pro: After running a closing second to Signalman last November in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), he entered the new year a 3-year-old to watch for the Derby. That career-best performance came at Churchill Downs.

Con: Plus Que Parfait simply hasn’t run back to that form this season, flopping in a pair of domestic preps before making the UAE Derby (G2) his target. His Dubai-based owners cashed a big check, but they weren’t much thinking Kentucky Derby until that day.

Roadster

Pro: He certainly has trainer Bob Baffert’s endorsement as “the TMZ horse” dating back to last summer. Before heading to the sidelines at 2 for minor throat surgery to fix a breathing issue, he wound up just two lengths back of an emerging Game Winner in the Del Mar Futurity (G1).

Con: Mike Smith — who’s hopping off — gave Roadster a perfect ride to win the Santa Anita Derby (G1), but it’s unlikely he’ll be able to take back so far in the Kentucky Derby before unleashing that same sort of run.

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By My Standards

Pro: No horse aside from perhaps Omaha Beach has looked better than the Louisiana Derby (G2) winner in training up to the Derby at Churchill Downs. As trainer Bret Calhoun put it, he makes breezes look like gallops.

Con: Has the media wise-guy horse ever won the Derby?

Maximum Security

Pro: While admittedly avoiding any pressure on a lone lead in the Florida Derby (G1), he registered a top late pace figure and came home with authority in that final prep. Visually impressive in fourth wins, he could be dangerous if on the early lead at Churchill.

Con: Well, they all finished up particularly fast in the Florida Derby, and we still don’t know exactly why connections were willing to offer Maximum Security for a $16,000 tag in his debut.

Game Winner

Pro: Bob Baffert has known since November that he had a Derby horse in this colt, and the Hall of Famer has brought Game Winner back slowly this season. Just Saturday, the trainer said he’s expecting a big move forward this time.

Con: Critics argue the rest of this crop has caught up to a precocious runner. Outside trips and lack of early positioning — the latter we don’t often see from a Baffert runner — doomed his chances of winning a pair of preps at age 3.

Code of Honor

Pro: Two starts back, trainer Shug McGaughey tightened the screws, and this one jumped up to win the Fountain of Youth (G2). After going in the pace-less Florida Derby, Code of Honor could be cycling to that sort of performance again.

Con: A light-framed colt, Code of Honor will also have to make up plenty of ground given he’s not known for speed from the gate. He looks like a strong underneath player, but a horse like Tacitus may be the better mid-pack play for a bigger piece of the prize.

Haikal

Pro: He beat some solid one-turn horses when delivering a late kick in the Gotham Stakes (G3), showing that given the right setup, this Kiaran McLaughlin trainee can factor at the graded stakes level.

Con: In his two-turn debut, that kick didn’t amount to quite as much in the Wood Memorial (G2). Given his pedigree, Haikal appears a stronger closing sprinter than classic distance contender.

Improbable

Pro: His stride is among the smoothest of this bunch, and it’ll be on display Sunday when Baffert sends the son of City Zip out for his final breeze. Blinkers come off in the Derby with that experiment also out of the way in the Arkansas Derby (G1).

Con: The equipment change came as Baffert tried to get this chestnut, who bears resemblance to Justify, into races quicker. What’s his preferred running style? While Improbable’s talent is obvious, the pedigree begs questions about 1 1/4 miles.

War of Will

Pro: If he hadn’t taken that bad step to open the Louisiana Derby, we could be talking about this colt as one of the favorites. Trainer Mark Casse insists War of Will is doing as well as ever physically for the Derby.

Con: Prognostication should be conducted on an individual basis. But horses that run ninth in a final Derby prep, suffer a mild injury while doing so, then go six weeks between races can’t have too strong of a record the first Saturday in May.

Long Range Toddy

Pro: Two starts back in the Rebel Stakes (G2), he flashed an elite turn of foot to kick in under jockey Jon Court and nab Improbable at Oaklawn Park. That sort of acceleration could keep him out of trouble.

Con: Long Range Toddy didn’t do much running in the Arkansas Derby. The question handicappers have to consider: Was it the slop, or the fact that this colt has already made eight career starts, and the last six without a break?

Tax

Pro: Since claimed by Danny Gargan, the Claiborne Farm-bred gelding has run three straight races at 1 1/8 miles and in each performance hit triple digits on the Brisnet Speed Rating scale. He’s alone in both distinctions.

Con: There’s an overall question of class, as each of those starts came at Aqueduct, and only in the Wood Memorial did he face much.

Cutting Humor

Pro: Able to work a nice trip, this colt set a track record last time while winning the Sunland Derby (G3). In doing so, he defeated a well-regarded 3-year-old in Anothertwistafate.

Con: Connections didn’t consider Cutting Humor a Derby horse before that race, and he failed as the Southwest Stakes (G3) favorite. John Velazquez hops off to go with Code of Honor.

Win Win Win

Pro: He beat Signalman in a photo for second in the Blue Grass as one of the few horses on that Keeneland card who were able to close against the bias. Speed is there, as he set a record at Tampa Bay Downs in winning the Jan. 19 Pasco Stakes around one turn.

Con: The Pasco, however, sticks out as by far his best race to date. There were excuses in his two-turn preps, sure, but there’s still a question to be answered as to his ideal distance, similar to Haikal.

Country House

Pro: The only colt to hit the board in two major preps, he’s training well at Churchill Downs and should deliver one of the race’s strongest closing kicks.

Con: There’s not likely a worse gate horse in the Derby. Post position won’t deter him, but only because Country House will give himself so much work to do.

Gray Magician

Pro: He was a bit unlucky to be beaten by a brave Plus Que Parfait in the UAE Derby, and there’s some obvious talent given he broke his maiden by 9 1/2 lengths when new to trainer Peter Miller’s care last fall.

Con: As is the concern with Plus Que Parfait, the UAE Derby was the target, not the Kentucky Derby. Overseas travel will take its toll, and then there’s the overall concern of whether he’s good enough for this spot.

Spinoff

Pro: The Louisiana Derby runner-up looked like a winner until tracked down late by By My Standards, who had the much better trip that day. This Todd Pletcher trainee goes third off the layoff in the Kentucky Derby and would be a dangerous one to leave off your tickets.

Con: This looks like the best current 3-year-old from Pletcher’s worst crop of sophomores in years. He faced little coming off the bench at Tampa Bay Downs, then gave up a lead in the stretch of his final prep. Short of conditioning or talent?

Master Fencer

Pro: He’ll come from off the pace and look to deliver a big run. Otherwise, this colt’s in the field for story line purposes and international attention on the Kentucky Derby.

Con: Master Fencer isn’t his country’s best. He certainly won’t be the Derby’s best.