Can Tiz the Law rebound? Experts weigh in

One of the major questions concerning the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic this Saturday at Keeneland revolves around the performance of Tiz the Law. The 3-year-old looked unbeatable in sweeping his first four starts this season for Sackatoga Stable, including commanding victories in the Belmont Stakes and Travers. But he dropped off significantly when he placed second to fellow Classic starter Authentic in the Sept. 5 Kentucky Derby.

The Derby represented the second defeat of his career in eight starts, with both setbacks coming at Churchill Downs. Was the disappointing Derby further evidence that the Constitution colt does not care for the Churchill Downs surface? Or perhaps it was a sign that he had peaked and was in decline?

Tom Pedulla, working on behalf of Horse Racing Nation, sought a variety of opinions about whether Tiz the Law can rebound in the Classic with 3-year-old and Horse of the Year honors at stake.

Bob Ehalt, senior writer, BloodHorse:

Tiz the Law should be very competitive in the Breeders’ Cup Classic as a maturing 3-year-old in the fall. In the Kentucky Derby, a relatively quick four-week turnaround and a racing surface he does not like came into play, and he still finished second. Judging by the way he’s been working and with nine weeks off on a different racetrack, look for Tiz the Law to turn in a big effort and be a major player.

Padraic Manocchio, content producer, Horse Racing Nation:

In a deep and competitive Breeders’ Cup Classic, in which as many as five horses could win, it is important to find one reliable runner to key in the top two spots. This year, that horse looks to be Tiz the Law. If he shows the expected continued progression from his Travers win, this colt could post a Beyer Speed Figure above 110, which puts him on par or ahead of all of his rivals. He is proven at the distance, is fresh for this race, and has a versatile style to help him adapt to an interesting expected pace scenario, which should be quick.

Ed McNamara, columnist, USRacing.com:

I expect Tiz the Law to run big in the Classic. Don’t downgrade him for finishing second in the Derby because he disliked a quirky track at Churchill Downs. He’s 0-for-2 there (where Hall of Famers Holy Bull, Skip Away and Easy Goer never won either) but 6-for-6 everywhere else. He is training well at Keeneland and is 4-for-4 this year off long layoffs, so the eight-week break should help. I give him a very good chance of winning at a decent price, say 7-2 or 4-1.

Kenny Rice, reporter, NBC Sports:

Barclay Tagg has done a great job this year with the way he handled the campaign for Tiz the Law. Almost immediately after the Derby, he was looking to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He wasn’t thinking Preakness. He had a pretty strenuous campaign and probably needed a little freshening. With that, you can point to Tiz the Law as a legitimate contender.

Lew Titterton, one of 35 investors in Tiz the Law:

I know that Barclay is not tickled pink about being inside (post two) for this race because there is always the chance you get trapped on the rail. I know Robin (assistant trainer Robin Smullen) said the horse was very stiff and sore after the last race. It took a long time for the horse to get to the point where he is limber, and now the horse is limber. It’s a tough race. There are great horses in it. We’ll do our best. I don’t think we’d be there if we didn’t think we could win.