Can Pegasus week help Brown rebound at Gulfstream?
Chad Brown was primed for a big Sunday at Gulfstream Park.
The four-time Eclipse Award winner as outstanding trainer had six entered, including four in races considered his bread and butter, fillies in maiden special weight races on the turf.
Unfortunately for Brown and his backers, all six horses performed as the previous 20 had done at the current Gulfstream meet. They lost.
That ran his losing streak beneath the mighty Pegasus Statue to 26 going back to April 1, 2023. That is a little disingenuous because he did not start a horse at Gulfstream between April 2 and Dec. 8, but still.
His previous winless mark at Gulfstream was Feb. 13-March 7, 2021, when he lost 18 straight.
It is important to note that the futility is limited to Gulfstream. Brown has won three races this year at Aqueduct and another one at Tampa, making him 4-for-16 outside Gulfstream this year and 8-for-30 everywhere but Gulfstream since Dec. 9. All of those winners were short prices, though. Brown is 0-for-23 at 4-to-1 or higher, though his 3-for-19 mark with favorites is not that great either.
Enough about the past, what do we think will happen in the future? Specifically on Saturday, when Gulfstream plays host to the 13-race Pegasus World Cup card featuring seven stakes. Brown has entered 14, including also-eligbles, with two each in the Grade 1, $1 million Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational and $500,000 Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf Invitational (G1).
It is possible that none of the 14 horses will be favored, but several are likely to be among the top choices. If given an average chance of 6-1, then there's an 88 percenet chance of at least one win. If being more conservative and assuming an 8-1 average chance without the AEs drawing in, then it is only a 75 percent chance of a win.
Brown could snap the streak before Saturday, as he has Privacy Setting in on Thursday and Orozimba on Friday. Using Horse Racing Nation's morning line, the former projects to be 10-1 and the latter is about 15-1. This gives Brown about a 16 percent chance of ending his skid before Saturday.
Looking at additional historical data between Dec. 1, 2018, and Nov. 30, 2023, Brown does struggle in December-January at Gulfstream, posting a 17.8 percent win percentage and -24% Horse Racing Nation Impact. From February to April, however, he is winning 27.2 percent and has a +9.4% HRN Impact. HRN Impact measures expected win total using actual percentage of win pool against actual wins.
So the big question, then, is whether Brown can turn things around on Saturday? The heating up in February gives reason for optimism, but his Pegasus World Cup day record does not. Brown is 3-for-23 on this day at Gulfstream with a -25.9% HRN Impact and -39.1% return on investment.
For those curious, Brian Lynch, Brendan Walsh and Bill Mott have the best records on Pegasus day. The worst goes to Rusty Arnold, who is 0-for-15 with no in-the-money finishes. Dale Romans is 0-for-28 and Saffie Joseph Jr. is 0-for-27, but they have hit the board four and seven times, respectively.
Unfortunately, I do not have much of a conclusion about what all this means for Saturday. Brown is too good to dismiss because of a losing streak. If his horses fit and the perceived value is there, then I would not hesitate to play said horses. Am I going into handicapping the card downgrading their chances? I don't think so, and I base that answer knowing that I won't suddenly re-evaluate if he wins a race on Thursday or Friday.