Can Nyquist fill Uncle Mo's giant shoes? The data says yes

Nyquist, the 2016 Kentucky Derby winner who captured the Breeders' Cup Juvenile as part of his undefeated 2-year-old campaign, has established himself as a successful stallion with over 4,200 starts from his progeny. His offspring have amassed more than $44 million in earnings, highlighted by Grade 1 winners including Immersive and Vequist in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, Velocity in the Del Mar Oaks and Slow Down Andy in the Awesome Again Stakes. He stands at Darley's Jonabell Farm in Kentucky with a $175,00 stud fee in 2025.

Nyquist is the best son of champion Uncle Mo, a super sire by any definition. Uncle Mo was a potent outcross for breeders looking to diversify from the Tapit or Into Mischief lines, and his death at age 16 was a major loss. Nyquist is the first place breeders look to fill that spot. The stats below, accurate through Sept. 9, will show whether that is the right way to go. 

With 19 graded-stakes winners to his credit and an overall win percentage of 16.1%, Nyquist is proving to be a reliable sire across multiple surfaces and distances. His progeny demonstrate versatility while showing particular strengths in dirt routes, the center of American racing.

Surface analysis: Dirt dominance

Nyquist's offspring have shown their strongest performance on dirt surfaces, with significantly higher win percentages and earnings compared to turf and synthetic surfaces.

The data reveals dirt as the clear preference with a 17.5% win rate, well above the 13.5% on turf and 14.4% on synthetic surfaces. Earnings per start are also highest on dirt at $11,560, compared to $9,240 on turf and $6,194 on synthetic tracks. Interestingly, both turf and synthetic runners produce slightly higher average Horse Racing Nation speed figures at 88 compared to 86 on dirt.

Distance analysis: Routes produce higher earnings

When examining sprint vs. route performance, Nyquist's offspring show solid results across both distance categories with notable differences in earnings.

Although win percentages are nearly identical between sprints and routes, route runners generate significantly higher earnings per start, $12,774 vs. $7,964, and produce superior HRN speed figures, 90 vs. 85.

Surface and distance combinations: Dirt routes excel

Breaking down performance by both surface and distance reveals more specific patterns in Nyquist's offspring capabilities.

Dirt routes emerge as the standout category with a 17.9% win rate and exceptional earnings per start of $16,363. This category also produces strong HRN speed figures at 88. Turf-route runners achieve the highest average speed figures at 92, and synthetic sprint performers lag all other categories at 11.4%.

Detailed distance analysis: Eight furlongs and beyond preferred

A granular examination of specific distance ranges shows where Nyquist's offspring perform most effectively.

Although shorter distances show higher win percentages, earnings and speed figures improve dramatically as distances increase. The 8.01-to-nine-furlong range produces solid win rates and strong earnings of $16,166 per start, and the limited sample at distances greater than nine furlongs shows remarkable earnings of $23,625 per start with outstanding speed figures of 100.

Gender analysis: Males win, females earn

Nyquist demonstrates a notable gender bias in passing along his racing ability, with male offspring outperforming females overall, with some key exceptions.

Males win at a higher rate, 16.5% vs. 15.5%, and produce significantly better speed figures, 91 vs. 82. But, females generate higher earnings per start at $11,882 compared to $9,302 for males. Nyquists's two Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winners, as well as his Grade 1 performers Randomized, Tenma and Cavalieri, point to where the earnings separation emerges.

Wet track performance: Solid adaptability

Nyquist's offspring maintain competitive performance on wet surfaces across different distances and surfaces.

Dirt route wet conditions produce the highest win rate at 21.4%, exceeding the overall dirt route performance. This suggests Nyquist's offspring may actually improve on off tracks in route races.

Development pattern: Steady improvement with experience

Nyquist's progeny show typical patterns of development through their early racing careers.

Second-time starters show the highest win percentage at 17.4%, and speed figures and earnings improve consistently from first to third starts. This suggests trainers benefit from giving Nyquist offspring racing experience before expecting peak performance.

Age comparison: 2-year-olds lead in win rate

Performance by age reveals interesting patterns across Nyquist's offspring development.

Two-year-olds achieve the highest win percentage at 18.8% and exceptional earnings per start of $16,847, reflecting Nyquist's own precocious talent. Speed figures improve with age, reaching 90 for horses 5 and older. Earnings per start decline after the juvenile season, though this is because of the Breeders' Cup's influence on purses.

Future outlook

Nyquist has established himself as the heir to Uncle Mo, a reliable stallion producing winners across multiple surfaces and distances, with particular strengths on dirt and in route races. His ability to sire precocious 2-year-olds mirrors his own racing pattern, and his progeny's capacity for improvement with age and experience makes them attractive to a wide range of connections.

With 40 graded-stakes wins already to his credit and strong overall statistics, Nyquist continues to build his reputation as a stallion capable of siring runners competitive at the highest levels of the sport.