Calumet Turf Cup Stakes 2021: Odds, picks, analysis

A veteran turf runner looks to win one of his division’s most lucrative races Saturday for a third time.

2018 and 2020 Calumet Turf Cup Stakes winner Arklow (3-1) is back as the morning-line favorite for the 2021 edition of the Grade 2, $1 million event. Post time from Kentucky Downs is 5:44 p.m. EDT, with NBC and TVG both broadcasting 1½-mile race.

Saturday’s Calumet Turf victor earns a “win and you’re in” berth into the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Turf, to run Nov. 6 at Del Mar.

Arklow first won this race, then known as the Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes, as a 4-year-old under jockey Florent Geroux. He sat eighth of 11 early on before rallying through the long stretch and scoring by a half-length.

After running second to Zulu Alpha in 2019, Arklow returned to the Franklin, Ky., winner’s circle last September. Wearing blinkers for the first time, he forged ahead under Geroux at the quarter pole and won by 1¼ lengths.

Geroux has won the Calumet Turf four times, all since 2014. He rides for a fifth score in the event Saturday aboard Arklow, a 7-year-old, Brad Cox-trained son of Arch.

"He's probably getting used to them now, having had them for a year now," Geroux said of Arklow and his blinkers. "I'm hoping there's a little bit of magic left with them – and the horse, too."

Arklow brings a career record of 34: 9-7-2 into the 2021 Calumet Turf with nearly $2.76 million earned. He won the Louisville Stakes (G3) in May at Churchill Downs but was off the board in both Monmouth Park’s United Nations Stakes (G1) and the Del Mar Handicap (G2).

Channel Cat (9-2) earned a Grade 1 breakthrough in May when winning Belmont Park’s Man o’ War Stakes for trainer Jack Sisterson. He won his only prior Kentucky Downs start, the 2018 Dueling Grounds Derby.

2019 Calumet Turf hero Zulu Alpha was entered for Saturday’s 2021 running. Those plans changed Friday when trainer Mike Maker and owner Michael Hui said the 8-year-old will instead be retired to Old Friends thoroughbred retirement farm in Georgetown, Ky.

Maker still has four horses aiming to earn the trainer a fifth Calumet Turf score, including Grade 3 winner Tide of the Sea.

Here is a look at the 2021 Calumet Turf Cup Stakes field (trainer and jockey in parentheses) with morning-line odds:

1. Imperador (Paulo Lobo, Joe Talamo), 15-1

2. Crossfirehurricane (Michael McCarthy, Flavien Prat), 20-1

3. Channel Cat (Jack Sisterson, John Velazquez), 9-2

4. Tide of the Sea (Mike Maker, Luis Saez), 6-1

5. Arklow (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux), 3-1

6. Bluegrass Parkway, SCR

7. Fantasioso, SCR

8. Ajourneytofreedom (Mike Maker, Irad Ortiz Jr.), 10-1

9. Glynn County (Mike Maker, Tyler Gaffalione), 15-1

10. Epic Bromance (Kent Sweezey, Joe Bravo), 15-1

11. Zulu Alpha, SCR

12. Breakpoint (Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario), 20-1

13. Big Dreaming (Wayne Catalano, Corey Lanerie), 20-1

14. Artemus Eagle (Waylon Cundiff, Chase Miller), 30-1

15. Dynadrive (Mike Maker, TBD), 20-1

16. Time for Trouble (Jeff Hiles, John McKee), 30-1

TimeformUS’ pace projections show Channel Cat going out to an early lead under jockey John Velazquez, followed by a trio that includes Tide of the Sea. Favorite Arklow is projected to attempt a rally from the very back of the field.

For more information on both the Calumet Turf and the $1 million Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint (G3), visit Horse Racing Nation’s free past performances page.

Calumet Turf links

Reinier Macatangay picks Arklow to win the Calumet Turf for the third time but offers some bigger prices for underneath spots. He also analyzes Kentucky Downs’ Franklin-Simpson Stakes (G2).

Matt Shifman walks through the entire Calumet Turf field, sorting out who to bet and who to toss. His long shots of interest include United Nations Stakes (G1) third-place finisher Epic Bromance, who has jockey Joe Bravo aboard Saturday.

Horseplayers love the big fields Kentucky Downs offers throughout its six-day meet. Unsurprisingly, Super Screener author Mike Shutty sees “high payoff potential” in the 12-horse Calumet Turf, in which a few runners with double-digit odds have caught his eye. 

This week on the Ron Flatter Racing Pod, track announcer Larry Collmus dives into the weekend’s Breeders’ Cup qualifying races.

Joel Rosario on Thursday set the Kentucky Downs single-meet wins record with his 13th victory of the week. The jockey pilots Breakpoint in the Calumet Turf for trainer Steve Asmussen.

Other Saturday stakes

Here is a look at other graded stakes taking place Saturday across the U.S. All post times are EDT.

2:13 p.m. – $150,000 (about U.S. $118,000) Seagram Cup Stakes (G3), 3-and-up, 1 1/16 miles (all-weather), Woodbine, TVG

Mighty Heart (4-5), winner of the 2020 Queen’s Plate Stakes and Prince of Wales Stakes, leads a short field of five. Josie Carroll trains the Dramedy colt, whose 4-year-old season has featured wins in Churchill Downs’ Blame Stakes and Woodbine’s Dominion Day Stakes (G3). Jockey Daisuke Fukumoto rides Saturday. Among other starters is Tap It to Win (10-1), a Mark Casse trainee who ran fifth in the 2020 Belmont Stakes.

3:57 p.m. – $600,000 Ladies Sprint Stakes (G3), 3-and-up fillies and mares, 6½ furlongs (turf), Kentucky Downs, TVG

Venetian Harbor (3-1), second last out in Del Mar’s Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (G1), switches surfaces Saturday. California-based Richard Baltas trains the 4-year-old Munnings filly, whose previous trips to Kentucky include a Raven Run Stakes (G2) score last year at Keeneland. Florent Geroux, two-time Kentucky Downs meet-leading jockey, gets the call on the favorite. Second choice in the field of 12 is Del Mar and Santa Anita stakes winner Superstition for trainer Richard Mandella.

4:34 p.m. – $750,000 Ladies Turf Stakes (G3), 3-and-up fillies and mares, one mile (turf), Kentucky Downs, TVG

Princess Grace (2-1) brings a 5-for-6 career record to Kentucky Downs for trainer Michael Stidham. She has won each of her last three starts, all in graded flight, including a Yellow Ribbon Handicap (G2) victory last month at Del Mar. Geroux will pilot the 4-year-old Karakontie filly in a field of nine. Abscond (4-1), a 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf also-ran, was second last out in Woodbine’s Nassau Stakes (G2) for trainer Eddie Kenneally.

5:09 p.m. – $1 million Turf Sprint Stakes (G3), 3-and-up, six furlongs (turf), Kentucky Downs, NBC and TVG

Casa Creed (7-2), who was third running a mile in Saratoga’s Fourstardave Handicap (G1), cuts back in distance Saturday to face 11 rivals in a Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint qualifier. He looks to take a second “win and you’re in” race after notching a victory in June’s Jaipur Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park. Jockey Junior Alvarado rides the 5-year-old son of Jimmy Creed for trainer Bill Mott. Casse’s two-time Fourstardave heroine Got Stormy (9-2) returns to Kentucky Downs, where she won the 2020 Ladies Sprint Stakes.

6:18 p.m. – $600,000 Franklin-Simpson Stakes (G2), 3-year-olds, 6½ furlongs (turf), Kentucky Downs, TVG

Point Me By (7-2) became a Grade 1 winner in only his third career start last month, taking the Bruce D. Stakes at Arlington. He will aim Saturday to improve to 3-for-4 lifetime for Kenneally when leading a field of 12 sophomores. Saratoga meet-leading jockey Luis Saez retains the mount on the Point of Entry colt. Annex (9-2) looks to make the grade for Mott after finishing runner-up at Saratoga in the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes (G2).  

9:50 p.m. – $125,000 (about U.S. $98,000) Canadian Derby (G3), 3-year-olds, 1¼ miles, Century Mile

Tony’s Tapit (5-2) carries a five-race winning streak into this 10-furlong event for trainer James Brown. The 3-year-old Tonalist colt has won the last four of those starts at Century Mile, an Alberta track that sits next to Edmonton International Airport. Jockey Enrique Gonzalez looks for the first graded stakes score of his career when saddling the morning-line favorite in a field of 11. Myopic (3-1) runs for trainer Robertino Diodoro, who previously won the Canadian Derby with Sky Promise (2018), Edison (2014) and Broadway Empire (2013).