California Crown fair odds: Muth ado about something

Based on my fair odds for the Grade 1, $1 million California Crown on Saturday at Santa Anita, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert trains both the morning line favorite and the most likely winner.

This is exciting from a wagering perspective because they're two different horses.

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National Treasure is the 8-5 morning-line favorite, but at 9-2 fair odds to win, he is a terrible play. Muth is the 2-1 second choice on the morning line, and while that equals my fair odds, indicating no real value in the win pool, seeing him as the most likely winner when he won't be favored presents some opportunity.

For certain, he is a single in multi-race wagers for me. I just don't see any value in doubling or tripling the cost of tickets going 2 or 3 deep here let alone spreading. 

Why do I like him so much? I thought that was a stellar return in the Shared Belief Stakes last out, and a step backward seems very unlikely to me. I don't think he'll be as close to this pace, which will allow him to show off a big late kick.

Senor Buscador was never meant to be a factor in the Pat O'Brien, returning from a near five-month layoff after a trip overseas against world-class sprinters going seven furlongs. He showed some signs of life late, though, and his 6-1 morning line would be value against my fair odds.

Subsanador ran great in the Iselin last out, but he picks up some weight here, and I expect him to be behind our top pick Muth when the real running starts, and I just don't see this one outsprinting Muth late.

I will bet Muth to win at greatter than 2-1. I will also box Subsanador, Muth and Senor Buscador in the exacta if National Treasure is favored.