Caesars Handicap fair odds: Play this price in turf debut

Molly's Town is 2-for-2 in stakes races against fellow Indiana-breds and 0-for-2 in so-called open company, but there is reason to believe the $150,000 Caesars Handicap on Wednesday at Horseshoe Indianapolis will be his coming-out party.

For one, Molly's Town looks like he could be lone speed against eight others, and his inside draw is ideal if he can pop the gate. Looking at the Ultimate Past Performances from Brisnet, we see that Molly's Town is the only entrant with an E running style as well as the only one with the maximum 8 Quirin speed points. He will be the one to catch.

Of course, the first-time turf is a legitimate question. Pedigree does not give us much to go on with Mo Town being 9 percent thus far with his turf progeny. It also is concerning that trainer Genaro Garcia is 0-for-29 with her first-time turf tries. 

All that is to say, getting the right price is essential. The 10-1 morning line suggests this one will be worth a bet based on our 9-2 fair odds.

It is worth noting that Aspenite is my most likely winner with fair odds of 3-1. I was less bullish on actually getting that price on him because his lone try at this distance on turf was a 3 1/4-length score for $500,000 last year at Kentucky Downs. And based on expected price, he fits this group better than his two tries sprinting against turf stakes foes this year. 

It is hard to envision Depiction going off at his 20-1 morning line given the connections of trainer Cherie DeVaux legging up Jose Ortiz, but he merits watching if he really is a big price, especially with first-time Lasix.

Oscar's World and Twirling Point are the top two choices on the morning line, and neither really excites me. I would love to get live in the final leg of the a $1 all-turf Pick 3 that involves races 4, 7 and 8 on the Wednesday stakes card.

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