CCA Oaks fair odds: Play this long shot with Thorpedo Anna

One of my favorite things about fair-odds analysis is seeing a practical example of how our opinions and the math are often, pardon the pun, at odds with each other.

For example, the Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga attracted a compact field of five led by Kentucky Oaks and Acorn Stakes winner Thorpedo Anna on a quest for her third consecutive Grade 1 win and perhaps a steppingstone to facing males next out in a race such as the Travers (G1).

Thorpedo Anna is certain to be an overwhelming favorite against these four challengers. Not only was her Acorn victory many lengths better than what any of these fillies have accomplished to date, but her running style is an edge at this track and at the 1 1/8-mile distance.

But what are her actual chances to win? When I first plotted this, I had no 3 Thorpedo Anna winning this race two-thirds of the time for fair odds of 1-2. I thought no. 1 Candied was a fair 2-1 chance. It does not take a doctorate in mathematics to know that means none of the other three fillies have a chance because 1-2 and 2-1 means a 100 percent chance one of them wins.

I opted to tick Thorpedo Anna up just slightly to 3-5, or a 62.5 percent chance, and make Candied 7-2. Candied is a talented filly, but her running style is compromising in this spot. Can she catch Thorpedo Anna for the win? That is certainly possible, but I don't think it happens a third of the time.

I do not expect either Thorpedo Anna or Candied to offer value at those prices. Thorpedo Anna is likely to be no higher than 1-2 and Candied no more than 3-1, so does that mean there will be value elsewhere?

Well, sort of. No. 2 Barbratina is 20-1 on my fair odds line, and there's definitely a chance she drifts from that, as Horse Racing Nation's projected odds have her as the longest shot of the quintet. I'll have a little mad money on her to win if she is above the fair odds threshold, but I think she's as likely as any of the others to fill out the exotics behind the obvious, so that is how I'll play it.

Barbratina is making her first start for trainer George Weaver, and I like that she sat a little closer to the pace last out in a Churchill Downs optional-claiming allowance while still showing a strong kick for her, posting her best ever Brisnet Late-Pace Rating. She had a rough start in the Gazelle (G3), where she was 3-1 and really did no running. But if you draw line through that, it is easy to see how she can be competitive for at least the minors here.

Win bet on Barbratina, small exacta box 2-3, bigger straight exacta 3-2, and some tries going 3 with 1,4 with 2. If Intricate runs well, then oh well. Again, this is all predicated on Barbratini being the longest shot and at least 20-1. If the board is more compact, then maybe I'll look for some 3-2 exacta will-pays and just play that.