Bullard may be part of 1-2 punch for McCarthy on Ky. Derby trail

The Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita is not a formal prep for Kentucky Derby 2025. And the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) has not produced a Derby winner since it replaced its Hollywood Park predecessor 10 years ago.

Then again, trainer Michael McCarthy had not collected either trophy until last month. That was when maiden winner Journalism broke through with a 3 1/2-length runaway at Los Al to become the current 17-1 Las Vegas futures favorite for the Derby.

This weekend McCarthy hopes to add to his stable’s bona fides. Grade 3 winner Bullard tries to keep his unblemished record intact as the 4-5 morning-line favorite in the San Vicente. Already 30-1 at Caesars Sportsbook in Nevada, the Gun Runner colt could earn more respect and even shorter futures odds.

“We’ve got a ways to go here, so you just hope that both horses stay healthy and find themselves in the mix sometime here in late April (and) obviously the first Saturday in May,” McCarthy said this week. “Right now it’s just about keeping them healthy and in a routine.”

January is too early to be realistic about the Derby, but it is not too early for optimism. Journalism and Bullard look like the best one-two punch McCarthy has had to entertain such wide-eyed notions. Throw in Kentucky Oaks (G1) hopeful Look Forward, the 2-1 favorite in Sunday’s Santa Ynez Stakes at Santa Anita, and he has a top-heavy roster of sophomores.

“I’d have to say it’s the best group of 3-year-olds we’ve had so far,” McCarthy said on Horse Racing Nation’s Ron Flatter Racing Pod. “It’s exciting thinking about what could happen this spring.”

It could be a big splash come May 2 and 3 for a trainer who only has toed U.S. racing’s most hallowed water. Last year three-time graded-stakes winner Endlessly was his first Derby starter, finishing ninth at 48-1. McCarthy might have broken the ice four years ago with Rombauer. Instead, owners John and Diane Fradkin decided to skip Louisville and aim for Baltimore, where Rombauer cashed at 11-1 odds in winning the Preakness.

A partnership of Michael Talla, Vinnie Viola’s St. Elias Stable, Three Chimneys Farm and West Point Thoroughbreds paid $675,000 to buy Bullard when he was a yearling. Out of unraced Warrior’s Reward mare Rêve d’Amour, he looked like he wanted more distance when he won his six-furlong debut in September at Del Mar. That was where he came back 2 1/2 months later to run away with the seven-furlong Bob Hope (G3) by 4 3/4 lengths and earn an 89 Beyer Speed Figure, according to Daily Racing Form.

“I wouldn’t say he exceeded my expectations,” McCarthy said. “I’d say he ran to them. We’ve always thought highly of him, so it was nice to see him annex that first race. Obviously he got a little bit of a faster figure, but he’s a horse that we’ve got high hopes for.”

Beyond what the numbers may or may not say, Bullard has looked professional in the eyes of McCarthy.

“Just the way he goes about his business, he trains with a lot of purpose every day,” he said. “He conducts himself well. He’s been well-broken and well-schooled and seems like he takes his gallops no matter how far we gallop him in stride. And he’s a fit horse right now, so we know that he’s capable of competing with California's best, and we hope with each race that we keep seeing more and more of that.”

With only five entrants, the San Vicente shapes up as a showdown between Bullard and trainer Bob Baffert’s $3.2 million colt Barnes, who looked green winning his 5 1/2-furlong debut in November at Churchill Downs.

“Barnes was impressive winning at Churchill Downs,” McCarthy said. “Although maybe he didn’t look impressive, he picked up and shipped from California to Kentucky and only had a couple of days over the racetrack. He looked like he was doing something he wasn’t real comfortable doing in sprinting. ... Five-and-a-half is a difficult distance. That horse has got plenty of upside as well.”

Journalism has been on a break since his Los Al Futurity victory earned him an 87 Beyer. A partnership led by Bridlewood Farm’s Leslie and John Malone bought into the Curlin colt who was sold for $825,000 as a yearling. Rallying for third in his six-furlong debut in October at Santa Anita, Journalism followed with two-turn mile win at Del Mar to break his maiden in November, four weeks before his Los Al score.

“This horse, akin to Bullard, is improving with each start,” McCarthy said. “He had three starts in seven weeks, he takes his training very well, he’s a horse that’s got wonderful mechanics and a wonderful mind on him.”

One challenge McCarthy has had in advancing both Bullard and Journalism is finding long enough races for them at home in Southern California. The elimination of the Sham Stakes (G3) last year in a 1/ST Racing budget cut meant the loss of a two-turn January prep for the Derby.

“We’re kind of left without a real great option out here in California with the absence of the Sham off the stakes schedule,” McCarthy said. “Seven-eighths again shouldn’t be an issue (for Bullard), but I would imagine that this would move him on to bigger and better things down the road. ... I don’t think routing is going to be an issue for him.”

McCarthy said if all goes well Saturday, the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe (G2) on March 1 and perhaps the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby (G1) on March 29 could be in Bullard’s future. Wanting to keep the stablemates apart, McCarthy suggested Journalism would go next in the one-mile Robert L. Lewis (G3) on Feb. 1 at Santa Anita.

“We’re just nominated to everything,” McCarthy said, “and we’ll strike when the iron is hot.”

It may be too late for futures bettors looking at Journalism. Odds of 17-1 look awfully short four months before the Kentucky Derby, and it has been 18 years since Street Sense was the last Jan. 1 Las Vegas favorite to win the roses.

McCarthy does not have to pay any attention to that. At 53, he knows how to stay grounded in such a mercurial sport. He was Todd Pletcher’s assistant for more than 11 years before going out on his own in 2014. He has won Breeders’ Cups with Ce Ce and City of Light, who also took the 2019 Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1).

That experience has not jaded McCarthy, though. He did not completely dismiss the idea that Journalism is so highly regarded. As he succinctly put it, “I think Las Vegas is probably right in their assessment of him.”