British expert handicaps best European bets for Breeders’ Cup
A London-based international racing expert, Nicholas Godfrey is filing previews for Horse Racing Nation with an emphasis on the Breeders’ Cup championships that feature European horses. Here is his analysis of those seven turf races.
OK, there have been only two previous editions of this race, but the European record hardly inspires confidence. Nothing was able to land a blow behind all-the-way winner Bulletin in 2018 at Churchill Downs, where the Euros ended up finishing 3, 4, 6, 8, 9 and 11. Last year was even worse at Santa Anita — 5, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12. Maybe 5 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland are a better fit than five furlongs on hard Californian turf, but none of this year’s trip makes any considerable appeal in this company. Keep an eye on Mighty Gurkha’s jockey, though. It is Hollie Doyle, the new star of British racing who earned her first Group 1 win last month. Ubettabelieveit has the best form of the visitors after a shock 40-1 win in the Flying Childers (G2) at Doncaster last time. A tendency to hang won’t help here, and neither would any rain.
Although Mutasaabeq may go off as the favorite for the home team in Sheikh Hamdan’s Shadwell colors, this looks marked for export with a serious group of European visitors in a race they have won eight times in the past from only 13 runnings. Aidan O’Brien (four winners, four seconds) runs Battleground, who must hold a leading chance. He is the favorite for next year’s classics in England and could hardly be better bred for the task. He is by War Front — like Hit It A Bomb, who won this at Keeneland in 2015 — out of the admirable Found, who won the Turf at this venue in 2015. I would be amazed if the morning-line price of 6-1 comes to pass; he will surely be the market leader overseas. At longer odds I am also sweet on the claims of New Mandate and Frankie Dettori. He has the sort of tactical speed that will play well in these surroundings and is nicely drawn in post 2. On the other hand, it is hard to trust Sealiway’s heavy-ground French form while a wide draw makes life even trickier for some of the others.
Year after year Europe sends top-class 2-year-old fillies to this event, and year after year they seem to come home empty-handed, usually thanks to the efforts of a certain Mr. Chad Brown. Last year it was Graham Motion’s Sharing who thwarted proper Group 1 fillies such as Dahhyeh and Albigna to take the European record to just two wins from 12 runnings — and none since 2013. This year’s representatives do not appear nearly as formidable with only Miss Amulet having won any sort of group race in Europe. She has won 3 of 7, ending up in smart company, but the step up in trip raises a question mark. Although Oodnadatta and Mother Earth are both Group 1 placed, they might be best used underneath as it would be a surprise if either can unseat a strong-looking U.S. team. Campanelle’s smart European form is a cut above any of the visitors, albeit at shorter trips.
Glass Slippers is a lovely sprint filly representing trainer Kevin Ryan, having his second Breeders’ Cup runner after East finished second in the Juvenile Fillies Turf in 2018. She comes to life in the autumn and failed by only a neck to repeat last year’s Prix de l’Abbaye (G1) success on the Arc card. She earned a spot here with a “win and you’re in” success in the Flying Five (G1) at the Curragh. She gets a little weight break with the sex allowance and would appreciate any rain, which does not appear to be coming. So far, so good. But you want cold, hard, rational analysis here, and there are serious negatives. The 4-year-old can race prominently but has also been known to miss a step at the break, which would not help matters. She could simply be run off her feet — like virtually every other European runner in a race where none has made the first three here since Diabolical finished second for Godolphin in the first running in 2008 — and even he was a former U.S. dirt sprinter. Equilateral, the also eligible, is capable of a high level of form on his day. The problem is that his day does not come very often, and he has been put in his place on a regular basis. That said, he is the type to run on from behind a frantic pace. Not impossible to hit the board at a massive price.
This looks tricky. Though Europe fields a decent-looking team, there is no obvious standout among them. Forced to rank them, I would have to put Godolphin’s Terebellum at the head of the list, though trainer John Gosden, more than adept on his stateside sorties, has not enjoyed a rip-roaring end of season in Europe. Still, the memory of her fine effort against the boys at Royal Ascot lingers, and the extra distance is no worry. But she is not miles ahead of her fellow visitors if she is indeed ahead at all. Peaceful can be forgiven her last-of-12 effort at Newmarket on terrible ground and brings proper classic form, though Aidan O’Brien’s record in fillies’ races at the Breeders’ Cup is hardly a positive. Four-length Curragh winner Cayenne Pepper brings credentials similar to last year’s winner Iridessa but may just find this a touch on the sharp side and has a poor draw, while Audarya is an improver for an unfashionable stable. Truth is, though, I would be backing Mean Mary to turn around the Diana (G1) form with Rushing Fall.
Massed ranks here on the inside for Europe. While the inside post always frightens me — not least on account of how often visitors are prone to missing the break — low numbers are plainly better than high at a mile on the Keeneland turf.
Kameko and Siskin bring classic-winning form, but neither really appeals. Kameko has stuttered amid a challenging program since winning the 2,000 Guineas, and winners of that race have not traditionally done well at the Breeders’ Cup — though admittedly this is an unconventional year, and he came back to form on his latest start. Siskin, though, is having his last start before stud duties in Japan and this looks an afterthought.
The post is a worry, but Circus Maximus is a hardy, consistent type who ran well in last year’s contest and could easily make the frame again at a double-figure price, while One Master was beaten by only a length when fifth at Churchill Downs in 2018. Her late-running style needs luck in running, but she is worth a look in the hope her brilliant jockey Pierre-Charles Boudot — runaway leader in the French championship — can find a path. Seven-furlong specialists have a fine record in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, which also means Safe Voyage is worth a look at a likely big price. He has been trading verdicts with One Master in Europe.
Let’s be frank here. With three U.S. horses at single figures, the Breeders’ Cup morning line looks a touch fanciful. With no disrespect intended, the likes of Channel Maker and Arklow have been slammed at previous Breeders’ Cups, and even last year’s runner-up United faces nothing like this level of competition on the West Coast. As far as British betting firms are concerned, you have to get past four European horses before you get to the first American.
But which one? Well, Magical is a really solid favorite, as good as ever at age 5 and the only horse to beat now-retired Ghaiyyath this season — and Ghaiyyath is world No. 1 for 2020, according to official international handicappers. If you are worried about Magical’s third place at Ascot on her most recent outing in the British Champion Stakes (G1), then forgive her. The ground was awful, and she raced too far back before staying on behind a couple of high-class, heavy-ground specialists.
However, the Aga Khan’s Tarnawa offers a persuasive alternative. She is nearly the market leader in Europe, having come to herself as a 4-year-old and recording a couple eye-catching Group 1 successes in France in her last two races. International pioneer Dermot Weld is on record saying this is his best-ever chance of finally breaking his Breeders’ Cup maiden, and he has taken the chance of running the daughter of Shamardal against the colts instead of easier pickings in the Filly & Mare Turf.
Of the others, Mogul is finally beginning to live up his $4.4 million price tag. He was quietly fancied for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe before his trainer’s runners had to be scratched over contaminated foodstuffs. Below form on soft ground last time, Lord North steps up in trip having produced one of the performances of the summer at Royal Ascot.
Best bet
Overall, the American team will be doing well to keep this sort of talent out of the winner’s circle. In the expectation that she might be missed on the pari-mutuel, I would be siding with Tarnawa as a potential value play against Magical, though there is no way I would be putting anyone off the latter. And yes, I am getting splinters from sitting on the fence.
Nicholas Godfrey is a former winner of the Joe Hirsch Award for Outstanding Newspaper Writing at the Breeders’ Cup. After nearly 29 years at the Racing Post he founded the website horseracingplanet.com in 2020 and remains a regular contributor to At The Races, Thoroughbred Racing Commentary and Sky Sports Racing in Britain plus Al-Adiyat magazine in Dubai.