Woodbine fair odds: Behold Magic of long shot in Breeders’

Tom’s Magic ran so well in the King’s Plate that it is hard to believe the Justify colt did not win the first jewel of Canada’s Triple Crown. However, he ran well enough to be the favorite in the third leg.

Tom's Magic, trained by Mike Stidham for CJ Thoroughbreds and Mo Speed Racing, is even-money on the morning line for the Breeders’ Stakes on Sunday at Woodbine. While that is too light of a price for me to get excited about betting him to win, there is a long shot among his eight rivals that makes the race a worthy wagering endeavor.

Watsonville Red has been at least 34-1 in each of his three stakes tries with a combined losing margin of 15 lengths. That is not encouraging, but I find some hope in his King’s Plate performance earning his fastest lifetime speed figure via several different data providers. Now he gets out to 1 1/2 miles on turf off that 1 1/4-mile on synthetic effort. He is by Hard Spun out of an Awesome Again mare, so his breeding gives me hope he can move forward again.

I also like that trainer Mike De Paulo debuted this one on turf, and while that did not go great at 10-1, it was only a one-mile affair and he was just two lengths behind eventual multiple Grade 1 winner Nitrogen. At 20-1 morning line, he can outrun his odds and be a part of the gimmicks.

There is nothing to suggest that Tom's Magic will not run his best race here, though. Trainer Michael Stidham got three works into the Justify colt after the King's Plate, and everything points to this one appreciating this 1 1/2-mile trip as well. 

I will bet Watsonville Red to win and key him with Tom’s Magic in the verticals.

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