Breeders' Cup 2021: Meet the European contenders

A record of four wins from seven races suggests the Keeneland turf was much to the liking of European visitors at last year’s Breeders’ Cup.

The prospect of a rather less forgiving surface at Del Mar probably ought to raise a degree of concern among the transatlantic team – and that is even before the Pacific climate, cramped track layout and a short stretch even by U.S. standards are taken into consideration.

Mind you, not much has changed at this iconic-but-idiosyncratic West Coast track since the Breeders’ Cup last came rolling into town four years ago, and on that occasion Europe went home with three of the six available turf contests thanks to Mendelssohn (Juvenile Turf), Wuheida (Filly & Mare Turf) and Talismanic (Turf).

OK, it took Iridessa’s victory in the Filly & Mare Turf to prevent a whitewash for the Euros in California at Santa Anita in 2019, but the size of the visiting team for the 38th Breeders’ Cup indicates a "nothing ventured, nothing gained" attitude at the very least.

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Not just from Europe, either. With Japan much more heavily involved, plus horses from South America and even South Africa, this is surely the most cosmopolitan Breeders’ Cup there ever has been.

What is more, several of the names saddling the European runners may also be a tad unfamiliar to American handicappers trying to make sense of overseas form lines. Sure, the behemoths of Ballydoyle and Godolphin are present and correct in the shape of Breeders’ Cup regulars Aidan O’Brien and Charlie Appleby.

But in many respects, this year’s raiding party hints at a changing of the guard in the major European nations, with new names feeding from the Group 1 table in 2021.

John Gosden and Sir Michael Stoute will not saddle a runner between them, for example, but the younger breed of George Boughey, David Loughnane and James Ferguson all make their debuts. Ferguson, the son of longtime Darley/Godolphin stalwart John Ferguson, landed his first Group 1 event only last weekend in France; he has Mise En Scene in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Hugo Palmer, not quite as new but hardly a well-known Cup figure, has three potential runners, headed by Dewhurst runner-up Dubawi Legend.

It is the same story in France, where Monsieurs Fabre, Head and Bary are notable only for their absence, unlike Francis Graffard and Cedric Rossi. Whatever happens next weekend, their names are worth learning: Graffard is set to take over as the Aga Khan’s principal trainer when Alain de Royer-Dupre retires at the end of the year, while Rossi had high-profile Group 1 wins at both the Arc meeting and British Champions Day.

The Irish team, meanwhile, features the likes of Royal Ascot-winning trainer Gavin Cromwell, Paddy Twomey and Michael O’Callaghan – plus the popular Adrian ‘Ado’ McGuinness, for whom A Case Of You secured a fees-paid spot in the Turf Sprint with a victory in the Prix de l’Abbaye.

On the other hand, at least some of the horses on show will not be anything like an unknown quantity as three of last year’s winners – Tarnawa, Glass Slippers and Audarya – are defending their crowns. It would have been all four, but Order Of Australia sustained what looks like a career-ending injury just after being pre-entered. It would have been hard to recommend his chances on recent evidence, but then again, who fancied him at Keeneland?

For all the "new blood" on the global stage set to show up just north of San Diego, Europe’s star turn comes from an old hand in the shape of Tarnawa and her international pioneer of a trainer, Dermot Weld. Now 5, the Aga Khan’s admirable mare looks sure to be sent off hot favorite to repeat last year’s triumph in the Turf under Colin Keane, the Irish champion jockey who is himself destined for superstar status.

A cautionary note: Tarnawa had a hard race in the Arc, and her trainer has kept one eye open on the Filly & Mare Turf, which is her second preference; Weld also has voiced concerns the ground at Del Mar will be much firmer than Keeneland.

Of course, Europe has an imposing record in the Breeders' Cup Turf, with 23 wins from 37 races for a strike rate of 62.2 percent – better than any other Breeders’ Cup race, although the Juvenile Turf (8-of-14, 57.1 percent) and Filly & Mare Turf (10-of-22, 45.5 percent) aren’t far behind. That said, the precise nature of the lineup remains in flux, though Godolphin already has tested the water with Walton Street and Yibir, who have won valuable races in North America in 2021.

Aidan O’Brien’s plans, though, are anybody’s guess. While the memory of Love’s swashbuckling 3-year-old campaign in 2020 are indelible, she hasn’t looked the same filly this year and has been under a cloud in recent weeks, missing the Arc.

More significantly, O’Brien has no fewer than four horses – Japan, Broome, Bolshoi Ballet and Mogul – on the also-eligible list. Their failure to make the cut is playing on the trainer’s mind. “We have four Group 1 winners that are all listed as reserves, so it is very possible that we might have to take Love out of it and let her run in the Filly & Mare to give the other horses a chance of getting into the Turf,” he said.

For all his exploits across the globe, O’Brien remains a conundrum for handicappers when it comes to the Breeders’ Cup, as I suggested in this spot 12 months ago – before his historic 1-2-3 in the Mile, it must be admitted.

Even allowing for that impressive feat, however, he is still hitting at only 8.3 percent, with 13 Breeders’ Cup winners from 156 runners. Before Keeneland, from plenty of runners, he had drawn a blank in the previous two seasons. Despite the firepower at his disposal, O’Brien still has never won a Breeders’ Cup fillies’ race; Found won the Turf against males. Ten of his wins comes from just two races — the Turf (six) and the Juvenile Turf (four).

Compare and contrast with Godolphin counterpart Charlie Appleby, who has saddled only seven runners. Three of them have won.

As Appleby draws near to the end of a rip-roaring campaign featuring Derby victories in both Britain (Adayar) and Ireland (Hurricane Lane), he can travel to the U.S. safe in the knowledge that all six of his runners (two each in the Juvenile Turf, Mile and Turf) are legitimate contenders.

British bookmakers make Appleby’s Modern Games the favorite for the Juvenile Turf, while Space Blues is a strong fancy for the Mile, for all that race can be a law unto itself with a maximum field hurtling around those tight turns. O’Brien will field hardwood heroine Guineas winner Mother Earth.

Glass Slippers bucked a significant trend to claim last year’s Turf Sprint, a race in which Europe had an abysmal record previously. She is joined by Kevin Ryan-trained stablemate Emaraaty Ana and Ireland’s A Case Of You to make a talented trio, but five furlongs at Del Mar promises to offer a different test from the 5 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland.

Elsewhere, Audarya is running at least as well as she was before flooring Rushing Fall in last year’s Filly & Mare Turf, a race in which Europeans will be well represented, even if Tarnawa, Love and Prix Vermeille heroine Teona take their chance in the Turf instead. Rossi’s Prix de l’Opera winner Rougir comes here, while another visitor worth serious consideration is Japanese-trained Loves Only You. Although she also holds the option of the Turf – don't you wish they’d make up their minds a bit quicker? – she was only narrowly beaten by Saudi Cup hero Mishriff and top Japanese racemare Chrono Genesis in the Dubai Sheema Classic in March and has long been earmarked for Del Mar.

Indeed, for the first time Japan appears to be taking the event seriously in 2021 with eight possible runners. They include an intriguing 2-year-old in Jasper Great, a 10-length winner on debut from Arrogate’s first crop, and a sneaky Mile contender in Vin De Garde.

The nation’s Breeders’ Cup record (0-for-13) is hardly the stuff of legends – no Japanese-trained horse has ever done better than fourth, and five of them finished last.

But Japanese horses have been leaving their mark on the international scene in no uncertain terms in the last couple of years, with high-profile victories in Europe, Hong Kong, Dubai and Australia.

They might not win – though Loves Only You very well could – but ignore them at your peril when it comes to those exotics.

Nicholas Godfrey is a former winner of the Joe Hirsch Award for Outstanding Newspaper Writing at the Breeders’ Cup. After nearly 29 years at the Racing Post he founded the website horseracingplanet.com in 2020 and remains a regular contributor to At The Races, Thoroughbred Racing Commentary and Sky Sports Racing in Britain plus Al-Adiyat magazine in Dubai.