Breeders' Futurity fair odds: Locked is loaded from outside

For those who don't know, in a previous life I was director of marketing of Brisnet, which, even now that I'm not paid to say so, I still acknowledge as the past performances provider with the best proprietary information, such as Prime Power and Class Ratings.

Another tool in its PPs kit is pace ratings, and when it comes to 2-year-old racing, I found through the years that the late-pace rating was a decent indicator of future success, specifically a triple-digit late-pace rating.

And so it goes with Locked, who blitzed home with a 109 late-pace rating when drawing off to win by 7 1/4 lengths on Sept. 1 at Saratoga. The Gun Runner colt had a rough debut when breaking last in a sprint, but more than made amends next out at 3-4 odds against nine overmatched rivals, as it was another 13 lengths between the second- and third-place finishers.

The pedigree gives no concern for this 1 1/16-mile trip in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity Saturday at Keeneland. And although the outside 9 post is not the most ideal, Locked already has demonstrated an ability to rally at various points of the race.

Speaking post, there's no doubt the rail is good at this configuration. In 71 such 2-year-old races the past nine years, the HRN Impact on the rail is +19.2 percent. That benefits The Wine Steward, a New York-bred Vino Rosso colt who is undefeated in three lifetime starts but gets a distance test in this race.

At 8-1 on the morning line, The Wine Steward is a likely overlay based on my fair odds. I'm willing to win bet Locked at the 7-5 price I'm hoping for, but if he ends up shorter, then exotics with The Wine Steward could be a play.

Awesome Road is my other contender, 3-1 on the morning line is far off my 8-1 fair odds. The debut was solid and gives him the look of one who could lead this group gate to wire, but he will have to improve dramatically to match the figures either Locked or The Wine Steward have earned.