Breeders' Futurity fair odds: Who to play beside Ferocious?

The good news is the Keeneland racing office found 10 2-year-olds to oppose Ferocious in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity on Saturday. The bad news is, there still might not be any value despite the 11-horse field.

Ferocious is an imposing force here, as the Flatter colt enters off a runner-up finish to Chancer McPatrick in the Hopeful (G1) 30 days ago at Saratoga. Chancer McPatrick is racing at 3:49 p.m. EDT on Saturday at Aqueduct, so we'll have a beat on the strength of the Hopeful by the time Ferocious faces starter's orders at 5:16.

There is nothing to suggest Ferocious should not handle the stretch out to 1 1/16 miles in the Breeders' Futurity given the rail draw and short stretch. Being by Flatter out of a Midnight Lute mare, perhaps more concerns develop as the configurations change, but he just looks better than these.

The only reason I did not make him 3-5 or 4-5 on my fair odds is he did regress ever so slightly in the Hopeful, but he does not need to move forward off either of his races to win this. And the regression was small enough that even if he just maintains that level he is more likely to win this by open lengths than to lose.

So what do we do with that opinion? I certainly couldn't fault anyone for singling him in all the multis. That'd be hypocritical of me since that's my plan. Once we get to point we can see prices, either via the race 8-9 double or race 9 itself after race 8 is official, we can re-evaluate based on whether they're betting the brakes off Ferocious.

East Avenue is the obvious alternative given the gate-to-wire win on debut at 6-5. The sky appears to be the limit for this Medaglia d'Oro colt from the barn of Brendan Walsh. The Brisnet pace ratings say Ferocious is faster early, though, so that gives me pause on being too bullish. Still, if Ferocious is something silly like 2-5 then East Avenue probably makes sense.

Regardless, as the clear second choice I expect no value in hooking up the top two in the gimmicks, which is where Tenacious Leader comes in. By Not This Time, Tenacious Leader returns to dirt after a runner-up finish in the With Anticipation on turf. His only win in three tries came at a mile on the dirt, and at 8-1 on the morning line it's possible he's worth a look given my fair odds of 12-1. I'd certainly be interested in the exacta will-pays with Ferocious.