Breeders’ Cup fair odds: Likely Juvenile winner already is a star

One of the reasons I like Ted Noffey so much in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile is I thought the runner-up to him in the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland, Blackout Time, ran a fantastic race.

So if the horse Ted Noffey beat so easily ran so well, then how good did Ted Noffey run? The good news for backers of Spendthrift Farm's undefeated Into Mischief colt is that he ran so well no improvement is needed to win his Breeders' Cup race the vast majority of the time. And if he happens to improve, then it would take an all-world performance to fell him on Friday at Del Mar.

I normally do not like being this bullish on one of the more obvious favorites of a blockbuster weekend of racing, but he checks every box, to borrow a cliche from the sales ring. The maiden-stakes-two-turn progression all with steady improvement sparks the imagination of how good he can be. Throw in that he has fired off a pair of triple-digit late-pace ratings on the Brisnet scale, and I'm even more excited, if that's even possible at 4-5.

The hope here is that Brant takes money, which is feasible given this is a home game for trainer Bob Baffert and his maiden win was one of the faster races this year. Still, that was a step backward in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. And although the time off is probably good for him, having to fire here in the two-turn debut off the bench against the likes of Ted Noffey makes him a pass for me.

As a total bomb contender, Mr. A. P. intrigues me a little bit having broken his maiden when stretching out to two turns. It would be complete chaos for him to win, but a slice underneath is not impossible at a huge number.