Breeders' Cup fair odds: Forever Young leads Saudi Cup rematch

Now that the Triple Crown season is behind us, it is officially Breeders' Cup prep season. 

It brings me little joy to recognize five months before the world championships Oct. 30-31 at Keeneland as "prep season," but the reality is many of the horses discussed will race two more times at most between now and the Breeders' Cup.

That said, it is impossible not to be excited about the prospects of this year's field, which could be headlined by a Saudi Cup rematch between Forever Young and Nysos. And, oh yeah, those two horses also happen to be the defending winners of the Breeders' Cup Classic and Dirt Mile, respectively.

Since that throwdown in the Grade 1 Saudi Cup in February, Forever Young finished second to Magnitude in the Dubai World Cup (G1) in March at Meydan, and Nysos returned stateside and won the Met Mile (G1)  on June 6 at Saratoga. Despite differing results in their comeback races, Forever Young has the Classic edge. He is the defending winner, and we've seen this pattern before from the international superstar who followed a similar path to winning the Classic last year.

The top 3-year-olds on the list are Further Ado and Golden Tempo. They had very different Triple Crown seasons, with the former losing the Kentucky Derby as the favorite before returning to win the Matt Winn Stakes (G3). Golden Tempo won both the Derby and Belmont Stakes and will be the champion of his division, absent some ridiculous second-half season by a 3-year-old involving defeating older male.

But from a Classic perspective, I give a slight edge to Further Ado, who we know likes Keeneland and overall has run consistently faster races than Golden Tempo.

Of course last year's Horse of the Year Sovereignty is very much in this conversation, and the Stephen Foster Stakes (G1) on June 27 at Churchill Downs will tell us a lot about his chances along with Magnitude, Oaklawn Handicap (G2) winner White Abarrio, Pennsylvania Derby (G1) winner Baeza, and possibly Pegasus World Cup (G1) winner Skippylongstocking.