Breeders' Cup Sprint 2021: Early odds and analysis
Betting heavy favorites too often is not a great long-term strategy in horse betting, but the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Del Mar is one situation where it looks OK to concede the race to the popular horse. The 3-year-old Jackie’s Warrior enters in spectacular form, and it will take bad luck for him to lose.
The Breeders’ Cup Sprint on Nov. 6 is carded as Race 8 at 5:38 p.m. EDT.
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Here is an early analysis of the likely field, with tentative morning-line odds from Horse Racing Nation.
Aloha West, 20-1 (Hard Spun – Wayne Catalano/TBA – 8: 4-2-0 - $271,068): This closer has been improving and now owns his first graded-stakes placing via a runner-up finish in the Phoenix Stakes (G2) at Keeneland. From a visual standpoint, it is usually not a great sign to see a horse who has perfect aim at the leader fail to get the job done, even if Aloha West lost by only a neck. Winner Special Reserve also did more work earlier in the race by pressing the leader. Aloha West can improve further after the Breeders’ Cup, but this assignment is too tough right now. Toss.
C Z Rocket, 15-1 (City Zip – Peter Miller/Florent Geroux – 29: 11-4-4- $1,491,641): It feels like C Z Rocket is slowly running out of gas as a 7-year-old gelding. Sure, he closed for third in the Bing Crosby Stakes (G1) and second in the Pat O’Brien Stakes (G2) on this course during the summer. C Z Rocket then closed for third in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2) earlier this month. But he lost by 3 1/4 lengths to Dr. Schivel, who looks like the “now horse” out of the California dirt sprinters. C Z Rocket also lost to a returning Dr. Schivel in the Bing Crosby by a neck. Last year, C Z Rocket won the Pat O’Brien and Santa Anita Sprint Championship. He is missing a step these days, but with a good trip, this gelding might pick up a minor check. Use underneath.
Dr. Schivel, 9-2 (Violence – Mark Glatt/TBA – 7: 5-1-1 - $536,000): First of all, the 7: 5-1-1 record is admirable. After winning the Del Mar Futurity (G1) last year, Dr. Schivel went on the shelf and did not return until an allowance race at Santa Anita in June. Dr. Schivel won his return and then took the Bing Crosby Stakes with a wide closing bid. To show off his versatility, Dr. Schivel switched to a speed horse in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship and won by 3 1/4 lengths after putting away Vertical Threat. Flagstaff and C Z Rocket came on the scene too late. While Dr. Schivel earned a final TimeformUS Speed Figure of only 114 for the most recent win, note the more competitive 119 raw speed figure. Because of the slow pace, his final number was adjusted down. Given this is an improving 3-year-old with a future, he is probably capable of faster races. Dr. Schivel also loves Del Mar with a 3-for-3 record here. The only problem is that he meets an elite sprinter in Jackie’s Warrior. Use underneath.
Firenze Fire, 20-1 (Poseidon’s Warrior – Kelly Breen/TBA – 37: 14-7-3 - $2,710,350): For a long time, Firenze Fire had been getting away with low speed figures at the graded-stakes level. As a 6-year-old horse, he failed to break the 120 mark on TimeformUS in his six races this year before the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He won the Runhappy Stakes (G3) and True North Stakes (G2) earlier in the year before finishing second in the John A. Nerud Stakes (G2), fifth in the Vanderbilt Handicap (G1), and second in both in the Forego Stakes (G1) and Vosburgh Stakes (G2). In the Vosburgh, it looks like the 3-year-old Following Sea exposed Firenze Fire’s lower speed figures when dominating him by 4 3/4 lengths. Now the waters get deeper in this field. Not only is Following Sea present again, but the division leader Jackie’s Warrior is also in this race. This time, the task is too difficult. Toss.
Flagstaff, 12-1 (Speightstown – John Sadler/TBA – 22: 7-7-4 - $1,075,585): Late in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship, Flagstaff started to cut into Dr. Schivel’s lead along with C Z Rocket. He lost to Dr. Schivel by 3 1/4 lengths, but Flagstaff nosed out C Z Rocket for second. Two starts ago, Flagstaff was third in the Pat O’Brien Stakes, while C Z Rocket beat him for second by a head. Three starts ago, Firenze Fire beat Flagstaff by 1 1/2 lengths in the True North Stakes, and Firenze Fire is far from the best runner in this race. Maybe Flagstaff is the kind of runner that adjusts to the level of his competition. He finishes second a lot, as evidenced by his seven runner-up finishes in 22 starts. He also won the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) in May by a nose over Lexitonian, which shows he can win a Grade 1. Betting-wise, he is better off used as an underneath option who can close. Use underneath.
Following Sea, 8-1 (Runhappy – Todd Pletcher/TBA – 6: 3-1-2 - $513,020): Finally, this 3-year-old put his talent together to easily win the Vosburgh Stakes (G2) at Belmont by 4 3/4 lengths. But two starts ago, he lost by nine lengths to Jackie’s Warrior in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1). Cross out the Haskell Stakes (G1) effort, as this is a sprinter who was asked to go farther than he wanted. If backers want to give Following Sea an excuse in his loss at Saratoga, TimeformUS labels the track as severely speed favoring during the H. Allen Jerkens. Then again, Following Sea was only about a length or two off the leaders in the opening quarter before steadily losing ground as Jackie’s Warrior and Life Is Good went to battle. With Jackie’s Warrior present again, it is hard to give this one consideration on top. Use underneath.
Jackie’s Warrior, 1-1 (Maclean’s Music – Steven Asmussen/Joel Rosario – 11: 8-1-1 - $1,513,964): Readers do not need a long essay on this ultra-talented 3-year-old. After a failed attempt on the Derby trail in the Southwest Stakes (G3), Jackie’s Warrior found his home in one-turn races, starting with a win in the Pat Day Mile (G2). After finishing second to Drain the Clock in the Woody Stephens Stakes (G1), Jackie’s Warrior then got his revenge with a 7 1/2-length romp in the Amsterdam Stakes (G2). Later in August, Jackie’s Warrior went to battle with Life Is Good in the stretch run of the Jerkens and prevailed by a neck. His most recent start was just a breather, as he easily won the Gallant Bob Stakes (G2). This is possibly one of the best sprinters of the past 10-15 years. As for the pace scenario, Jasper Prince, Matera Sky and Pingxiang all possess speed. Jasper Prince and Pingxiang are listed as first preference in the Dirt Mile, though, while Jackie’s Warrior should handle Matera Sky, who had shown speed and faded to eighth in the 2019 edition of this race. Given his proven ability and accomplishments, Jackie’s Warrior looks worthy of single consideration in all tickets, horizontal and vertical. The pick.
Jasper Prince, 50-1 (Violence – Hideyuki Mori/TBA – 25: 5-2-3 - $1,025,010): Analyzing Japanese-based horses is usually difficult. While most American racing followers know European racing to an extent, only the most dedicated fans watch races in Japan. Luckily, this one ran in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint last year. He took the lead by two lengths early before folding and finishing last by 17 lengths. If he runs in this race, then he might make Jackie’s Warrior’s task more difficult as an added nuisance up front. As stated earlier, though, his first preference is the Dirt Mile, and that is the better spot given the imposing favorite here. Toss.
Lexitonian, 30-1 (Speightstown – Jack Sisterson/TBA – 20: 5-2-2 - $698,682): This runner is stuck in an odd good race/bad race pattern. Four starts ago, he was second by a head to Flagstaff in the Churchill Downs Stakes. Then, Lexitonian threw a clunker in the Metropolitan Handicap (G1) by finishing last and 45 1/4 lengths back. Afterward, he won the Vanderbilt by a half-length over Special Reserve. And in his most recent start, Lexitonian ran last by 31 3/4 lengths in the Forego. To Lexitonian’s credit, he stumbled at the break in the Forego and made a run while approaching the turn. Maybe this is the “good race” part of his cycle. Use underneath.
Matera Sky, 50-1 (Speightstown – Hideyuki Mori/TBA – 34: 7-9-0 - $3,019,611): Although Matera Sky is technically based in Japan, he travels so often that it can become hard to tell at times. Americans know him from the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Sprint, where he showed early speed before fading to eighth and last. This year, his lone good effort came in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint on the Saudi Cup undercard in February. He lost by only a neck in that $1.5 million race. But in the Dubai Golden Shaheen one month later, he was 12th by 18 lengths. In his recent prep race in Japan, he faded to fifth by six lengths. Old age is possibly catching up. Toss.
Pingxiang, 50-1 (Speightstown – Hideyuki Mori/TBA – 13: 4-3-1 - $646,834): Trainer Hideyuki Mori’s other Speightstown runner lacks any North American starts. In fact, this is Pingxiang’s first attempt at racing outside of Japan. Most of the comments on the right side of his running lines state he “led early,” which is not a great style for a race that contains the speedy and talented Jackie’s Warrior. As an added negative, the runner-up in Pingxiang’s most recent start, Battistini, went on to finish 10th in the Green Channel Cup. Pingxiang also is listed as a first preference for the Dirt Mile. He likely is overmatched no matter which Breeders’ Cup event he enters. Toss.
Special Reserve, 12-1 (Midshipman – Michael Maker/TBA – 22: 8-2-7 - $638,647): With Special Reserve, the biggest positive comes from his ability to either press or stalk the leader. Does Jackie’s Warrior seem loose up front? Special Reserve can sit within a length or two off of him and hope for the best. Is another speed horse attempting to duel with Jackie’s Warrior? Special Reserve has won from five lengths off of the leader once in the past, although it is more common to see him sit closer and apply the pressure. Two starts ago, Special Reserve finished a good second in the Vanderbilt by a half-length behind Lexitonian. In his most recent start, he held on against a closing Aloha West in the Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland. Besides his versatility and class, this is an ultra-consistent runner who hit the exacta in all seven starts this year. For exacta bettors, he could offer a decent value in the second slot behind Jackie’s Warrior. Use underneath.
Conclusion
Jackie’s Warrior looks too talented for this field. Even if the pace runs fast, this is the type of horse who can withstand it and still put away the field in the end.
While bettors want to avoid choosing the favorite too often, Jackie’s Warrior is the single here. For value in second, look at Flagstaff, Lexitonian and Special Reserve.
Win: Jackie’s Warrior
Exacta wheel: Jackie’s Warrior over Flagstaff, Lexitonian, Special Reserve