Breeders' Cup Saturday Pick 5: Analyzing first to last
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There is no better bet in racing than the Pick 5 on Breeders' Cup Saturday. The lower takeout sequence often pays at least four times more than the Pick 4 even if it is started by a favorite.
Below, I analyze every race in the late Pick 5 sequence by rating the horses from first to last. A horse with a grade of 'A' should be included on all tickets. A runner with a grade of 'B' should be included on most tickets, and a horse with a grade of 'C' means to include only on deep tickets. Horses with a grade of 'X' will be tossed.
Sprint
| Number | Horse | Odds | Grade | Comments |
| 10 | Yaupon | 7-2 | A | Drew well in a race lacking speed. Asmussen has dominated dirt sprints. |
| 1 | Echo Town | 20-1 | B | The 'other' Asmussen is not far off the best & worked super with blinkers. |
| 11 | Diamond Oops | 8-1 | B | Versatile gelding has a win over the track and is tough in sprints. |
| 2 | C Z Rocket | 7-2 | X | On a roll for Miller, but do not like the inside draw for his style. |
| 6 | Frank's Rockette | 10-1 | X | Big ask for a 3YO filly, but has speed & has never been worse than 2nd. |
| 3 | Collusion Illusion | 20-1 | X | Had a perfect trip against C Z Rocket, but couldn't get job done. |
| 7 | Whitmore | 15-1 | X | Neat horse may have lost a step at 7. |
| 8 | Firenze Fire | 8-1 | X | He has never been the same horse outside of Belmont. |
| 9 | Empire of Gold | 30-1 | X | Out to prove his 2nd at 51-1 in the Phoenix was not a fluke. |
| 12 | Hog Creek Hustle | 30-1 | X | Has been defeated at the allowance level recently. This is a step up. |
| 15 | Lasting Legacy | 30-1 | X | Has not been the same since leaving the Jason Servis barn. |
| 4 | Bob Raison | 30-1 | X | Have a hard time seeing this one repeating off allowance win. |
| 5 | Manny Wah | 30-1 | X | Has not won in a year and looks over his head here. |
| 13 | Jasper Prince | 30-1 | X | Japanese shipper would be a shocker. |
Mile
| Number | Horse | Odds | Grade | Comments |
| 2 | Kameko | 6-1 | A | His Mile races have been brilliant and he has faced the best competition. |
| 6 | Safe Voyage | 15-1 | A | He is an amazing 9 for 10 around left-handed turns. Dangerous at a price. |
| 5 | Digital Age | 8-1 | A | The best of the Americans is intriguing on the cutback to one mile. |
| 4 | Siskin | 12-1 | B | Which Siskin shows up? His best is good enough to win this race. |
| 13 | Factor This | 8-1 | X | In the form of his life, but winless at one mile. |
| 11 | Ivar | 4-1 | X | Sharp local win, but a poor value in a deep field. |
| 12 | Uni | 5-1 | X | Respect the defending champ, but do not think she is quite as good this year. |
| 14 | Raging Bull | 8-1 | X | Bad post for a runner who often disappoints at low odds. |
| 3 | Lope Y Fernandez | 30-1 | X | He should move up over firm turf, but still a step below the best. |
| 1 | Circus Maximus | 12-1 | X | The rail draw may force his hand early in a race with other speed. |
| 8 | March to the Arch | 15-1 | X | Ran well with a troubled trip in the Woodbine Mile, but is in too deep here. |
| 10 | Halladay | 12-1 | X | Much better on the lead and will have to fight for it with Factor This. |
| 7 | Casa Creed | 20-1 | X | Consistently a step below the best of the division. |
| 15 | Order of Australia | 30-1 | X | Is 6-1 in an undercard race and would make more sense there. |
Distaff
| Number | Horse | Odds | Grade | Comments |
| 10 | Monomoy Girl | 8-5 | A | All-time great mare does not know how to run a bad race. |
| 5 | Swiss Skydiver | 2-1 | B | Did the Preakness take too much out of her? If not, she is the main threat. |
| 2 | Harvest Moon | 12-1 | C | This improving filly is the real deal. She will make the top two work. |
| 9 | Ollie's Candy | 10-1 | X | She doesn't like to win, but always shows up with an honest effort. |
| 8 | Valiance | 12-1 | X | Beat Ollie's Candy last time & has upside, but still a lot to prove. |
| 3 | Dunbar Road | 12-1 | X | Tough filly was very disappointing in her comeback effort. |
| 7 | Point of Honor | 30-1 | X | Another honest filly whose ceiling is the back of the trifecta or superfecta. |
| 4 | Horologist | 8-1 | X | Proved she was not just a MTH horse, but is too inconsistent to contend. |
| 1 | Ce Ce | 12-1 | X | Has not been the same since dramatic Oaklawn win. Distance looks too far. |
| 6 | Lady Kate | 15-1 | X | Don't like her chances at this distance against this quality of a field. |
Turf
| Number | Horse | Odds | Grade | Comments |
| 3 | Tarnawa | 6-1 | A | Ships over in razor sharp form, adores the distance & has a great turn of foot. |
| 2 | Magical | 5-2 | A | 7-time Group 1 winner is all class & will be tough to beat. O'Brien has been cold. |
| 6 | Lord North | 8-1 | B | Dangerous on his best day. Out to prove last poor effort was due to soft turf. |
| 9 | Channel Maker | 5-1 | C | Is tough on the lead and he should get that in here, but has been facing weaker. |
| 1 | Arklow | 5-1 | X | Better with blinkers, but the water gets deeper. Can he string wins together? |
| 7 | United | 8-1 | X | Respect this consistent gelding, but can't see him reproducing his 2019 run. |
| 10 | Mogul | 4-1 | X | No value here on a colt facing older for the first time. |
| 5 | Donjah | 30-1 | X | This is a big step up in class from her strong German form. |
| 4 | Mehdaayih | 30-1 | X | Respect Gosden, but this filly seems off her best form. |
| 8 | Red King | 20-1 | X | Enters off 3 wins in a row, but looks outclassed in this spot. |
Classic
| Number | Horse | Odds | Grade | Comments |
| 2 | Tiz the Law | 3-1 | A | Undefeated outside of Churchill Downs, adores the distance and is tactical. |
| 4 | Tom's d' Etat | 6-1 | A | Loves to run fresh, has a win over the track and is in razor sharp form. |
| 9 | Improbable | 5-2 | B | Scary on his current form, which is the best in the field. Deserving favorite. |
| 10 | Maximum Security | 7-2 | B | Loves the distance & scary on his best day. Not sure he is the same horse. |
| 3 | By My Standards | 10-1 | X | Consistent colt always shows up, but is just a notch below the best. |
| 9 | Authentic | 6-1 | X | Ran his guts out in Preakness. Don't think he'll get distance while pressured. |
| 7 | Global Campaign | 20-1 | X | Solid runner has improved with blinkers. Likely to pressure pace & fade. |
| 1 | Tacitus | 20-1 | X | Likes to finish in the money, but is bitting off more than he can chew here. |
| 6 | Higher Power | 20-1 | X | He's not as good as he was when 3rd last year, and this field is much better. |
| 5 | Title Ready | 30-1 | X | Dallas Stewart has had many long shots outrun their odds. This won't be one. |
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