Breeders' Cup Saturday Pick 5: Analyzing first to last

Photo: Jim McCue / The Maryland Jockey Club

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There is no better bet in racing than the Pick 5 on Breeders' Cup Saturday. The lower takeout sequence often pays at least four times more than the Pick 4 even if it is started by a favorite.

Below, I analyze every race in the late Pick 5 sequence by rating the horses from first to last. A horse with a grade of 'A' should be included on all tickets. A runner with a grade of 'B' should be included on most tickets, and a horse with a grade of 'C' means to include only on deep tickets. Horses with a grade of 'X' will be tossed. 

Sprint

NumberHorseOdds Grade Comments 
10Yaupon7-2ADrew well in a race lacking speed. Asmussen has dominated dirt sprints.
1Echo Town20-1BThe 'other' Asmussen is not far off the best & worked super with blinkers.
11Diamond Oops8-1BVersatile gelding has a win over the track and is tough in sprints.
2C Z Rocket7-2XOn a roll for Miller, but do not like the inside draw for his style.
6Frank's Rockette10-1XBig ask for a 3YO filly, but has speed & has never been worse than 2nd.
3Collusion Illusion20-1XHad a perfect trip against C Z Rocket, but couldn't get job done.
7Whitmore15-1XNeat horse may have lost a step at 7.
 8 Firenze Fire 8-1XHe has never been the same horse outside of Belmont.
9Empire of Gold  30-1 Out to prove his 2nd at 51-1 in the Phoenix was not a fluke.
12Hog Creek Hustle  30-1 XHas been defeated at the allowance level recently. This is a step up.
15Lasting Legacy  30-1Has not been the same since leaving the Jason Servis barn.
4Bob Raison  30-1 Have a hard time seeing this one repeating off allowance win.
5Manny Wah 30-1 XHas not won in a year and looks over his head here.
13Jasper Prince  30-1 XJapanese shipper would be a shocker.

Mile

NumberHorseOdds Grade Comments 
2Kameko6-1AHis Mile races have been brilliant and he has faced the best competition.
6Safe Voyage15-1AHe is an amazing 9 for 10 around left-handed turns. Dangerous at a price.
5Digital Age8-1AThe best of the Americans is intriguing on the cutback to one mile.
4Siskin12-1BWhich Siskin shows up? His best is good enough to win this race.
13Factor This8-1XIn the form of his life, but winless at one mile.
11Ivar4-1XSharp local win, but a poor value in a deep field.
12Uni5-1XRespect the defending champ, but do not think she is quite as good this year.
 14Raging Bull  8-1XBad post for a runner who often disappoints at low odds.
 3Lope Y Fernandez 30-1XHe should move up over firm turf, but still a step below the best.
 1Circus Maximus12-1XThe rail draw may force his hand early in a race with other speed.
 8 March to the Arch15-1XRan well with a troubled trip in the Woodbine Mile, but is in too deep here.
10 Halladay 12-1XMuch better on the lead and will have to fight for it with Factor This.
 Casa Creed20-1XConsistently a step below the best of the division.
15 Order of Australia 30-1XIs 6-1 in an undercard race and would make more sense there. 

Distaff

NumberHorseOddsGradeComments 
10Monomoy Girl8-5AAll-time great mare does not know how to run a bad race.
5Swiss Skydiver2-1BDid the Preakness take too much out of her? If not, she is the main threat.
2Harvest Moon12-1CThis improving filly is the real deal. She will make the top two work.
9Ollie's Candy10-1XShe doesn't like to win, but always shows up with an honest effort.
8Valiance12-1XBeat Ollie's Candy last time & has upside, but still a lot to prove.
3Dunbar Road12-1XTough filly was very disappointing in her comeback effort.
7Point of Honor30-1XAnother honest filly whose ceiling is the back of the trifecta or superfecta.
4 Horologist 8-1 X Proved she was not just a MTH horse, but is too inconsistent to contend.
Ce Ce 12-1 XHas not been the same since dramatic Oaklawn win. Distance looks too far.
Lady Kate 15-1 XDon't like her chances at this distance against this quality of a field.

Turf

NumberHorseOddsGradeComments 
3Tarnawa6-1  A  Ships over in razor sharp form, adores the distance & has a great turn of foot. 
2Magical5-2A7-time Group 1 winner is all class & will be tough to beat. O'Brien has been cold.
6Lord North8-1  B  Dangerous on his best day. Out to prove last poor effort was due to soft turf.
9Channel Maker5-1CIs tough on the lead and he should get that in here, but has been facing weaker.
1Arklow5-1  X  Better with blinkers, but the water gets deeper. Can he string wins together?
7United  8-1  X Respect this consistent gelding, but can't see him reproducing his 2019 run. 
10Mogul4-1XNo value here on a colt facing older for the first time.
5Donjah 30-1 X This is a big step up in class from her strong German form.
4Mehdaayih30-1  X  Respect Gosden, but this filly seems off her best form.
 8 Red King 20-1 X Enters off 3 wins in a row, but looks outclassed in this spot.

Classic

Number Horse OddsGrade Comments
2  Tiz the Law3-1AUndefeated outside of Churchill Downs, adores the distance and is tactical.
4Tom's d' Etat 6-1ALoves to run fresh, has a win over the track and is in razor sharp form.
9Improbable 5-2B Scary on his current form, which is the best in the field. Deserving favorite.
10Maximum Security 7-2BLoves the distance & scary on his best day. Not sure he is the same horse.
3 By My Standards10-1XConsistent colt always shows up, but is just a notch below the best.
9Authentic 6-1XRan his guts out in Preakness. Don't think he'll get distance while pressured.
7 Global Campaign20-1 XSolid runner has improved with blinkers. Likely to pressure pace & fade.
1 Tacitus20-1XLikes to finish in the money, but is bitting off more than he can chew here.
6 Higher Power20-1XHe's not as good as he was when 3rd last year, and this field is much better.
5Title Ready 30-1XDallas Stewart has had many long shots outrun their odds. This won't be one.
 

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