Breeders’ Cup: New favorites, new horses, new futures odds

Recency bias does not seem to have informed the betting market for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. In the case of Knicks Go, absence makes the odds grow shorter. 

More than six weeks since his 4 1/2-length triumph in the Whitney (G1) at Saratoga, the four-time Grade 1 winner has become the clear 7-2 favorite at the Costa Rica bookmaker Bovada to win the $6 million race Nov. 6 at Del Mar.

While 4-1 second choice Essential Quality trains up to the Breeders’ Cup, stablemate Knicks Go will be sent by trainer Brad Cox into the Lukas Classic (G3) on Oct. 2 at Churchill Downs before being shipped to California.

Here are Bovada’s updated Breeders’ Cup futures odds for the nine races scheduled to be run Saturday, Nov. 6. (Odds from last Monday are in parentheses.)

Classic

  7-2   (5-1) Knicks Go

  4-1   (4-1) Essential Quality

  7-1   (7-1) Max Player

  9-1   (9-1) Happy Saver

10-1 (10-1) Life Is Good

10-1 (10-1) Maxfield

12-1 (12-1) Forza Di Oro

12-1 (12-1) Hot Rod Charlie

12-1 (12-1) Tripoli

16-1 (16-1) Medina Spirit

16-1 (16-1) Silver State

18-1 (18-1) Country Grammer

18-1 (18-1) Rombauer

20-1 (20-1) Express Train

20-1 (20-1) Jackie’s Warrior

20-1 (20-1) Midnight Bourbon

22-1 (22-1) Royal Ship

25-1 (25-1) Concert Tour

25-1 (25-1) Fulsome

25-1 (25-1) Idol

25-1 (25-1) Rock Your World

25-1 (25-1) Tacitus

25-1 (25-1) Tizamagician

33-1 (33-1) Dr Post

33-1 (33-1) Known Agenda

40-1 (40-1) Dream Shake

40-1 (40-1) Jesús’ Team

Turf

A second-place finish to St Mark’s Basilica this month in the Irish Champion Stakes (G1) did not keep Tarnawa from becoming a 4-1 co-favorite to repeat as the winner in the Turf. Mishriff slipped from 7-2 to 4-1, perhaps because trainers John and Thady Gosden said their main goal is next month’s British Champion (G1) at Ascot. Godolphin geldings Walton Street and Yibir, stakes winners Saturday in North America, each opened at 6-1. One-time favorite Love, the 2020 European champion who has lost her last three races, was dropped.

  4-1   (7-2) Mishriff

  4-1   (9-2) Tarnawa

  9-2   (9-2) St Mark’s Basilica

  6-1   (4-1) Domestic Spending

  6-1   ( -- ) Walton Street

  6-1   ( -- ) Yibir

12-1   (9-1) Gufo

12-1   (9-1) Japan

12-1 (10-1) Lord North

12-1   (5-1) State of Rest

16-1 (16-1) Astronaut

16-1 (16-1) Channel Maker

16-1 (16-1) Colonel Liam

16-1 (16-1) Mogul

16-1 (12-1) Tribhuvan

16-1 (16-1) United

20-1 (16-1) Al Aasy

20-1 (20-1) Arklow

20-1 (14-1) Bolshoi Ballet

20-1 (20-1) Imperador

25-1 (25-1) Channel Cat

25-1 (25-1) Say the Word

33-1 (33-1) Serpentine

33-1 (33-1) Somelikeithotbrown

33-1 (33-1) War Like Goddess

  --   (10-1) Love

Distaff

While Letruska held her ground as the 5-2 favorite, two-time Eclipse Award winner Monomoy Girl remained idle from workouts and drifted to 7-2. Malathaat’s odds rose to 6-1 after trainer Todd Pletcher confirmed his plans to train her up to the Breeders’ Cup. Even after last week’s announcement that Swiss Skydiver would go on an extended break before being sold in November by Peter Callahan, her odds held firm at 7-1.

  5-2   (5-2) Letruska

  7-2   (3-1) Monomoy Girl

  6-1 (11-2) Malathaat

  7-1   (7-1) Swiss Skydiver

  8-1 (13-2) Search Results

10-1 (10-1) Gamine

11-1 (11-1) Maracujá

12-1 (16-1) Shedaresthedevil

14-1 (14-1) As Time Goes By

14-1 (14-1) Ce Ce

16-1 (16-1) Clairière

16-1 (16-1) Crazy Beautiful

25-1 (25-1) Blue Stripe

25-1 (25-1) Vequist

33-1 (33-1) Travel Column

40-1 (40-1) Dayoutoftheoffice

Mile

Palace Pier held at plus-185 to win the Mile, although the Gosdens have not indicated whether they will fly the 4-year-old colt to America. Order of Australia, who was second to Baaeed in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (G1), shortened from 10-1 to 8-1. Baaeed went from 5-1 to 6-1. All three have been aimed for Ascot next month to the Queen Elizabeth II (G1), the mile race on British Champions Day.

  9-5   (9-5) Palace Pier

  9-2   (9-2) Poetic Flare

  6-1   (5-1) Baaeed

  7-1   (6-1) Domestic Spending

  8-1 (10-1) Order of Australia

  9-1   (9-1) Got Stormy

  9-1   (8-1) Lord North

  9-1   (9-1) Mo Forza

  9-1   (8-1) Tribhuvan

10-1 (10-1) Gran Alegria

12-1 (12-1) Danon Kingly

12-1 (12-1) Lope y Fernández

12-1 (12-1) Smooth Like Strait

14-1 (14-1) Master of the Seas

20-1 (20-1) Du Jour

20-1   ( -- ) Town Cruise

25-1 (12-1) Raging Bull

33-1 (33-1) Lucky Vega

33-1 (33-1) Somelikeithotbrown

40-1 (40-1) Champers Élysées

Sprint

After trainer John Sadler told the Daily Racing Form he would consider the Breeders’ Cup for Flightline, the allowance winner leaped into the Sprint futures, opening as the new 5-2 favorite. The 3-year-old colt by Tapit has raced only twice with four months between starts, but he won by 13 1/4 and 12 3/4 lengths.

  5-2   ( -- ) Flightline

  3-1   (9-2) Jackie’s Warrior

  5-1   (5-1) Yaupon

  6-1   (6-1) Nashville

  7-1   (7-1) Firenze Fire

  7-1   (7-1) Ginóbili

  8-1   (8-1) Bella Sofia

  9-1   (9-1) C Z Rocket

10-1 (10-1) Dr. Schivel

16-1 (16-1) Flagstaff

16-1 (16-1) Mind Control

16-1 (16-1) Whitmore

25-1 (25-1) Lexitonian

Filly & Mare Turf

There appears to be a bull market for Santa Barbara, a two-time Grade 1 victor this summer in the U.S. for Irish mega-stable Coolmore. Her move from 11-4 to 5-2 was the only change in the odds for this race. The biggest question for the 3-year-old Camelot filly may be whether trainer Aidan O’Brien races her again before the Breeders’ Cup, which he has said is her long-term goal.

  5-2 (11-4) Santa Barbara

11-4 (11-4) War Like Goddess

  4-1   (4-1) Loves Only You

  4-1   (4-1) Snowfall

  9-2   (9-2) Gufo*

  6-1   (6-1) Alpine Star

  6-1   (6-1) Mean Mary**

  7-1   (7-1) Aunt Pearl

  8-1   (8-1) Althiqa

  8-1   (8-1) Audarya

12-1 (12-1) Gift List

12-1 (12-1) Harvey’s Lil Goil

12-1 (12-1) Jouster

12-1 (12-1) Summer Romance

14-1 (14-1) Lemista

14-1 (14-1) Magic Attitude

20-1 (20-1) Personal

33-1 (33-1) La Signare

33-1 (33-1) Willow

  *Colt; still listed by Bovada.

**Retired; still listed by Bovada.

Dirt Mile

There were no changes since last week in the futures for this race, which will be run around two turns at Del Mar. Life Is Good could become a firm favorite if he were to win Saturday in the Kelso Handicap (G2), a one-turn mile at Belmont Park.

  3-1   (3-1) Life Is Good

  4-1   (4-1) Jackie’s Warrior

  5-1   (5-1) Silver State

11-2 (11-2) Art Collector

10-1 (10-1) Medina Spirit

12-1 (12-1) Concert Tour

12-1 (12-1) Drain the Clock

12-1 (12-1) Mischevious Alex

14-1 (12-1) By My Standards

14-1 (14-1) Fulsome

14-1 (14-1) Jesús’ Team

Turf Sprint

There were no changes in the odds for this race, which will be a one-turn, five-furlong test on the Del Mar grass. After a seventh-place finish in the Nunthorpe (G1) last month in England, trainer Wesley Ward could race 2020 Juvenile Turf Sprint winner Golden Pal on Oct. 9 in the Woodford (G2) at Keeneland or perhaps train up to the Breeders’ Cup.

  5-2   (5-2) Golden Pal

  7-1   (7-1) Starman

  8-1   (8-1) Campanelle

  8-1   (8-1) Gear Jockey

  8-1   (8-1) Kimari

10-1 (10-1) Glass Slippers

14-1 (14-1) Fast Boat

16-1 (16-1) Casa Creed

16-1 (16-1) Dragon Symbol

25-1 (25-1) Sombeyay

25-1 (25-1) Supremacy

Filly & Mare Sprint

The reigning champion in this division has not set a foot wrong in four starts this year. Now she is an odds-on favorite to repeat in this race, which will be run at seven furlongs at Del Mar. If trainer Bob Baffert were to give her one more prep, it could be in the Chillingworth (G3) going 6 1/2 furlongs Oct. 3 at Santa Anita.

  4-5   (1-1) Gamine

  4-1   (5-2) Bella Sofia

  6-1   ( -- ) Kimari

  8-1 (13-2) Ce Ce

  8-1   (8-1) Souper Sensational

12-1 (10-1) Australasia

20-1 (14-1) Estilo Talentoso