Breeders’ Cup Mile 2018: Projected field, odds
The makeup of this year’s $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile remains in flux, with decisions pending for connections to a number of European runners. How much talent ships in to Churchill Downs could lead to declarations by U.S. runners on the fence, too. For now, it appears a fairly wide open race with a prep to pay attention to still to run Saturday.
Below is a look at the projected field and odds, which will not balance given this field is far from final, but rather reflect the type of price we expect to see once the morning line is set.
Catapult, 12-1 [Kitten’s Joy — John Sadler — 15: 6-3-1 — $621,384] Transferred this year to Sadler from trainer Chad Brown, Catapult has run three times in 2018. Defeated by just 1 3/4 lengths off the bench in June, he turned the tables on Sharp Samurai next out to win the Eddie Read (G2), then backed that up with a score in the Del Mar Mile (G2). He owns ascending speed figures but enters the Breeders’ Cup off a layoff.
Expert Eye, 6-1 [Acclamation — Sir Michael Stoute — 9: 4-2-1 — $727,455] British-bred, Expert Eye’s past performances show one glaring drawback. He has won two of his last four races, both at seven furlongs in Group 3 company, but lost the other two, both run at a mile against Group 1 foes. Still, the connections are top-notch, and the 3-year-old has missed the board just once this season.
Fly to Mars, 15-1 [Ministers Wild Cat — Peter Miller — 16: 5-3-2 — $327,358] He was a close second to Catapult across the wire in the Del Mar Mile but disqualified to third due to some movement in the stretch. As many from Miller’s barn do, Fly to Mars shows nice early speed. Then it’s all about whether he’ll hang around. His last two races hit triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures for the first time. Just getting good now, or eligible to bounce?
Hunt, 25-1 [Dark Angel — Phil D’Amato — 29: 9-5-3 — $909,454] Another who last raced in the Del Mar Mile, Hunt was sixth, and he was 10th in the Eddie Read as well. His best performance of the year came off a layoff May 28 in Santa Anita’s Shoemaker Mile (G1). Lightly raced this season, Hunt is also 6 years old and looking a step slower. It’s difficult to see him factoring, but a break between races should help.
Lightning Spear, 8-1 [Pivotal — Dmi Simcock — 25: 7-3-5 — $1,814,578] He has gone up against the world’s best in the division this year and doesn’t mind a softer surface, which is likely at Churchill Downs. His win in the Sussex Stakes (G1) on Aug. 1 at Goodwood came over “good” turf. In two starts before that, he hit the board under the same conditions. Last out at Longchamp he was fifth on firm turf.
Next Shares, 10-1 [Archarcharch — Richard Baltas — 20: 5-4-2 — $1,067,697] Based on the West Coast, he has shipped to — and stayed in — Kentucky for victories in the Old Friends Stakes at Kentucky Downs as well as the Shadwell Turf Mile. Not bad for a $190,000 purchase as a horse in training just last year. He has consistently run in higher-caliber races since transferred to Baltas and backs it up with nice speed figures.
Oscar Performance, 4-1 [Kitten’s Joy — Brian Lynch — 14: 8-0-1 — $2,345,696] Aside from the Arlington Million (G1) run, in which he took a bad step and was pulled up as the favorite, Oscar Performance has been untouchable this season. Both his other starts registered 104 Beyers, most recently in his wire-to-wire Woodbine Mile (G1) score. The 4-year-old wasn’t pressured on the front end, but he also isn’t a need-the-lead type. The distance seems to suit him better than the Breeders’ Cup Turf’s 1 1/2 miles.
Polydream, 5-1 [Oasis Dream — Freddy Head — 7: 4-1-0 — $441,746] Irish-bred and French-trained, this 3-year-old filly ranks among the best of the Europeans on paper having won the Prix Maurice de Gheest (G1) at Deauville in her last start, topping a massive field. Her only defeat in three starts this year — Polydream was well beaten in May at Longchamp — can be blamed for a poor trip, though she has run distinctly better in shorter races.
Qurbaan, 15-1 [Speightstown — Kiaran McLaughlin — 15: 6-1-3 — $413,108] Transferred from France, he scored in the Bernard Baruch (G2) at Saratoga in his first start for the McLaughlin barn. The follow up wasn’t quite as impressive, but Qurbaan managed third in Keeneland’s Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) that may have featured a fluky winner in 23-1 Next Shares and runner-up Great Wide Open at 81-1. Earning a 102 Beyer in the Bernard Baruch off a nearly 11-month layoff gives him every reason to contend here.
Recoletos, 3-1 [Whipper — Carlos Laffon-Parias — 13: 7-1 — $1,259,116] Laffon-Parias could have the race favorite here pending Recoletos’ run in Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth II (G1) run at Ascot. He was fourth to Cracksman in last year’s Champions Stakes but cuts back in distance on this year’s card. Laurens, who was supplemented to the QE II, could go there or skip straight to either the Mile or Filly & Mare Turf.
Sharp Samurai, 20-1 [First Samurai — Mark Glatt — 14: 8-2-0 — $735,270] As division leaders focused on the Breeders’ Cup, Sharp Samurai last year reeled off four straight wins from June through October. But since then, his only victory is in allowance company, and his Beyers are below par for what will be needed in the Mile. The off-the-pace type would probably prefer going a furlong farther.
Voodoo Song, 30-1 [English Channel — Linda Rice — 18: 8-2-1 — $883,435] A Saratoga specialist, he won his first five career starts at the Spa, including the Fourstardave (G1), before defeated in the Bernard Baruch. If he goes in the Mile, he’s likely to be sent early. Voodoo Song packed it in after failing to make the lead in the Shadwell Turf Mile.
Also possible: Almanaar, Analyze It, A Raving Beauty, Delta Prince, Divisidero, Great Wide Open, Gustav Klimt, Laurens, Lord Glitters, Mr Havercamp, Synchrony, Wind Chimes, With You