Breeders' Cup Juvenile fair odds: Who can beat Ted Noffey?

As a Ragozin devotee, I am a big proponent of the idea that speed is class. In other words, horses run what they're capable of regardless of the conditions of the race.

I mention this because my approach to a first pass through handicapping the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on Oct. 31 at Del Mar had me leaning on class more than I usually do.

Ted Noffey is the obvious favorite as an undefeated two-time Grade 1 winner, including passing the two-turn test last out when winning the Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland. Of all the Juvenile hopefuls, Ted Noffey fits the profile of a Juvenile winner best in terms of his career to date and running fast races.

Brant has a similar career to Ted Noffey through his first two races, breaking his maiden then winning the Del Mar Futurity (G1) in his second-career start. But Brant comes in to the Juvenile without a race since that score on Sept. 7 at Del Mar. That's why I give a big edge to Ted Noffey.

Brant is one of several Bob Baffert trainees possible for the Juvenile. The Hall of Fame trainer has won the Juvenile a record six times, including last year with eventual 2-year-old male champion Citizen Bull. Todd Pletcher trains Ted Noffey. Also in the Hall of Fame, Pletcher has won the Juvenile four times. Baffert and Pletcher together have won each of the last four Juveniles.

The other top Baffert-trained contender is Desert Gate, who made Brant work late for that Del Mar Futurity win but came up short against Intrepido in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1). Baffert said Desert Gate was tired after the race, which makes Desert Gate interesting to me if the clockers like what they see in the mornings leading up to Halloween.