Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies: Odds and analysis

Using common handicapping standards, the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies is not an easy race to analyze. In overseas markets, the narrow favorite is Princess Noor, a Bob Baffert-trained filly who brings a 3-for-3 record to the big race. But she is not the dominant filly on figures, which suggests an underlaid price.

Ignoring Princess Noor is not as easy as saying the numbers do not measure up. Below is an analysis of the eight fillies and an argument defending Princess Noor, while not necessarily advocating to empty out the bank account either.

The Juvenile Fillies is carded as Race 8 with a post time of 3:50 p.m. EST. 

1. Crazy Beautiful (Second preference: Juvenile Fillies Turf), 15-1 (Liam’s Map – Kenneth McPeek/TBA – 4: 2-2-0 - $188,845): Traffic problems stalled Crazy Beautiful’s move in the Pocahontas Stakes (G3). And when she got in the clear, the leader Girl Daddy found more and won by two lengths. Crazy Beautiful then tried the local Alcibiades Stakes (G1), where she ran in second for the entire race. But Simply Ravishing left her in the dust, beating Crazy Beautiful by 6 1/4 lengths. Both Girl Daddy and Simply Ravishing show up again in this spot, as well as Princess Noor, making the task difficult. She might develop into a top filly at some point, but right now bettors can skip over her until she finishes better. Toss.

2. Dayoutoftheoffice, 9/2 (Into Mischief – Timothy Hamm/TBA – 3: 3-0-0 - $216,500): The TimeformUS figures keeping moving upward for this 3-for-3 filly. After breaking her maiden at Gulfstream with a 76 in May, she won the Schuylerville Stakes (G3) at Saratoga by six lengths with a 103 and the Oct. 10 Frizette Stakes (G1) by two lengths with a 112 on TimeformUS. She won the Frizette after tracking the pacesetter in second, which means her speed is tactical. In this race, Dayoutoftheoffice makes the leap to two turns and stretches out slightly. Both of those new factors are concerns for this daughter of Into Mischief. She also will face Princess Noor, who could turn into a super filly. This is a good filly herself, but she does not give any impression other than just “good,” at least not yet. She also might deal with a fast pace and tire out sooner with Simply Ravishing and Vequist present. Limit her to the bottom slots this time. Use underneath.

3. Girl Daddy, 8-1 (Uncle Mo – Dale Romans/TBA – 2: 2-0-0 - $141,240): Girl Daddy took the Pocahontas Stakes (G3) by two lengths at Churchill Downs using stalking tactics. When eventual runner-up Crazy Beautiful shook clear after getting bounced around in the stretch, Girl Daddy found more and kept the other filly at bay. She shows only a 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the victory, but young horses improve all the time. Girl Daddy could make the next step. With that said, how much higher can she go this week? If she reaches a 109 or 110, it still seems questionable whether that kind of figure can get it done, especially with Simply Ravishing, Dayoutoftheoffice and Princess Noor present. But she might mount a decent run for a piece. Use underneath.

4. Princess Noor, 2-1 (Not This Time – Bob Baffert/TBA – 3: 3-0-0 - $303,000): Baffert’s entrant is an enigma. On one hand, Princess Noor brings plenty of momentum into this race, with three easy wins to start off her career. Those wins include a 6 1/2-length jog in the Del Mar Debutante (G1) and 8 1/4-length romp in the Chandelier Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita. She won those easily under her own power and even took dirt in the latter race before making her move. The main concern lies within the speed figures, which are low on TimeformUS. She shows only a 99 for the Del Mar win and went backward at Santa Anita with a 95. Also, she did not beat a strong group in either race, as none of the starters even made the Juvenile Fillies. Despite the low speed figures and weak fields, she is probably going to start as the favorite or second choice. And I believe she is worth it. Given she has not tried at all yet, she is capable of more than those speed figures suggest. Princess Noor glides across the racetrack effortlessly in a manner that suggests plenty left in reserve. She also continues to train extremely well in the mornings by powering past her workmate toward the wire, as she did in her Oct. 24 workout in company with Spielberg and her Oct. 30 workout, both shown on XBTV. Either Princess Noor is the one, or the race is a skip. It is just too hard to pick another filly with confidence knowing Princess Noor is a possible monster. The pick.

5. Princess Secret, 30-1 (Khozan – Daniel Pita/TBA – 5: 3-2-0 - $434,300): To Princess Secret’s credit, she has earned $434,000 in only five starts. The bulk of those earnings came from the $400,000 Florida Sire My Dear Girl Stakes at Gulfstream, which she won by a neck with a 95 TimeformUS Speed Figure. On the same course, she also took the FTBOA Florida Sire Susan’s Girl Stakes by 3/4 of a length. But she was not dominant against those Florida-breds, and now she steps into a Breeders’ Cup race against Princess Noor and other top fillies with graded credentials. The connections are dreamers to attempt this, but unfortunately she has little chance. Toss.

6. Simply Ravishing (Second preference: Juvenile Fillies Turf), 5/2 (Laoban – Kenneth McPeek/TBA – 3: 3-0-0 - $304,600): Her last two races are hard to ignore. She won the off-the-turf P. G. Johnson Stakes at Saratoga by 6 1/2 lengths with a 101 on TimeformUS before taking the Alcibiades Stakes (G1) at Keeneland by 6 1/4 lengths with a 109. In the latter race, she set the pace before coasting home in a dominant manner over runner-up Crazy Beautiful. Thoughtfully ran a distant fourth. To nitpick the win, Simply Ravishing was lucky when Travel Column began the race slow and did not contest her on the lead. From there, Simply Ravishing set sluggish fractions of 24.43 and 48.59 with at least a one-length cushion. She figures to take more pressure this time with Dayoutoftheoffice and Vequist in the field, and the exciting Princess Noor is right behind them as well. She is a play-against on top this time, mainly because she faces different circumstances up front and the Baffert filly. Use underneath.

7. Thoughtfully, 20-1(Tapit – Steven Asmussen/TBA – 3: 2-0-0 - $145,064): This might sound like a double standard, but she is too slow to factor in. Thoughtfully shows a 96 on TimeformUS for her distant fourth by 12 1/4 lengths in the Alcibiades (G1), and before that she won the Adirondack Stakes (G2) with an 85. The 96 technically puts her in line with Princess Noor, who is the top choice in this race. But the ceiling seems far lower for this filly than Princess Noor. Thoughtfully had to work hard when capturing the Adirondack, and then she was exposed in the Alcibiades. Yet Asmussen wants to try again in the Breeders’ Cup? For those who still believe, the trainer’s persistence is a good sign. But she misses the cut in this analysis. Toss.

8. Vequist, 6-1 (Nyquist – Robert Reid Jr./TBA – 3: 1-2-0 - $195,500): Two starts ago, Vequist broke her maiden in the Spinaway Stakes (G1) at Saratoga by 9 1/2 lengths with a 106 on TimeformUS. Afterward, when stretching out to one mile in the Frizette Stakes (G1) at Belmont, she ran second to the sharp Dayoutoftheoffice. She lost by only two lengths with a 109. At least her TimeformUS figure went upward in the runner-up finish. But she never was a real threat to Dayoutoftheoffice, who had the race in control late. Now she faces Dayoutoftheoffice again, along with other top fillies in Simply Ravishing, Girl Daddy and Princess Noor. With a good stalking trip, she might take a piece. Toss.

Conclusion:

Princess Noor does not own the right speed figures — yet. But she has Baffert behind her along with three visually impressive wins where she coasts toward the wire.

For this handicapper, either Princess Noor is the choice or the race is a skip. Remember this rule. It is more important to wait for the “right” Breeders’ Cup race to attack rather than to chase every single one even if the value does not feel right.

But why would Princess Noor not make a good bet? The low speed figures undoubtedly will scare off some of the public, which helps her odds. As long as she does not fall below 2-1, that might be fair enough on an undefeated Baffert runner.