Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies 2018: Projected field, odds

Barring a number of late commitments, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies field is shaping up to be small. The East Coast runners have been all over the place while big names on the West Coast, aside from the likely favorite Bellafina, have been less than consistent. The Juvenile Fillies will be part of “Future Stars Friday” Nov. 2 at Churchill Downs and is 1 1/16 miles over the main track.

Super Screener tip: According to Horse Racing Nation’s handicapping system, this race when run at Churchill offers little value in the win spot, with favorites having won six of eight runnings under the Twin Spires. Play your longshots in the superfecta spot. Click here for more secrets to winning on the Breeders’ Cup.

Here’s a look at the projected field and odds, which will not balance given the field isn’t set, but rather reflect the type of price we expect to see once the morning line is set.

Bellafina, 2-1 (Quality Road – Simon Callaghan – 4:3-1-0 – $488,000): Bellafina is already a two-time Grade 1 winner and has beaten every juvenile filly she's taken on in California. She deserves favoritism after being a dominant repeat prep winner.

Jaywalk, 6-1 (Cross Traffic – John Servis – 4:3-1-0 – $284,200): Jaywalk took the road less traveled between Monmouth, Parx and Delaware before winning the Frizette (G1) at Belmont. She romped to a 5 ¾-length win when stamping her Breeders’ Cup ticket.

Reflect, 15-1 (Trappe Shot – Keith Desormeaux – 4:1-1-0 – $121,150): After two out-of-the money graded stakes attempts, Reflect was runner-up in the Alcibiades in a full 14-horse field. The added distance seems to have helped.

Restless Rider, 9-2 (Distorted Humor – Kenny McPeek – 4:3-1-0 – $401,360): She was a beautiful 2 ½-length winner in the Alcibiades and has progressed nicely as she’s stretched out. The performance will make her one of the favorites. 

Serengeti Empress, 5-2 (Alternation – Tom Amoss – 4:3-0-0 – $187,870): No Grade 1 win, but this filly has wowed in her last two performances. Serengeti Empress most recently won the Pocahontas (G2) by 19 ½ lengths at Churchill Downs, giving her meaningful experience over the track.

Sippican Harbor, 10-1 (Orb – Gary Contessa – 3:2-0-0 – $242,650): Sippican Harbor switched from turf to dirt to upset the Spinaway (G1) and beat Restless Rider. The win was visually impressive as she rallied from last, but she has yet to route.

Splashy Kisses, 20-1 (Blame – Doug O’Neill – 3:1-1-0 – $73,945): After breaking her maiden at Del Mar, Splashy Kisses was a distant second to Serengeti Empress in the Pocahontas. With that big of a margin, the winner is the only impressive looking filly from the field.

Vibrance, 15-1 (Violence – Michael McCarthy – 3:1-1-0 – $99,600): Vibrance broke her maiden by 5 ¼ lengths at Del Mar before finishing 6 ½ lengths behind Bellafina in the Chandelier (G1). It was a big step up to face Bellafina, but Vibrance has the chance to improve again.