Breeders' Cup Juvenile: Which coast has the fastest contender?

In a race full of inexperienced runners, there are many directions a handicapper could go in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Based on speed figures, however, this is little more than a two-horse showdown pitting Bob Baffert's $1.5 million Corniche against Chad Brown's much less expensive, but equally impressive Jack Christopher.

Both runners tipped their hoofs early with glowing workout reports that led to short odds in their first two starts. They have lived up to the billing thus far, and then some.

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Like the two favorites, Rattle N Roll and Pinehurst also own Grade 1 wins by wide margins. Although their wins look impressive on paper, it is important to take a closer look at speed figures to get a better sense of who was behind them.

Below we compare Beyer, Brinset and TimeformUS Figures to gauge who the fastest juveniles are heading into the Breeders' Cup. Is this a simple match race, or is there another contender lurking in the shadows?

Who is the fastest? According to Beyer and TimeformUS Figures, the answer is Jack Christopher. Based on Brisnet Ratings, that title belongs to Corniche. It is interesting that Corniche took a big step backward on the Beyer scale, from a 98 on debut to an 85 in the American Pharoah, yet he rose on the Brisnet and TimeformUS scales from his first start. Did he improve in his first test around two turns? That all depends on which matrix you trust most. 

Jack Christopher, like Jackie's Warrior last year, must prove that he can stretch his brilliant speed to two turns. That is a bigger question mark than his ability, which is apparent. His 102 Beyer Speed Figure is very impressive for a 2-year-old, and his TimeformUS number of 123 easily handles everyone in this field, including Corniche by a whopping 15 points.

Vulnerable contenders: Pinehurst and Rattle N Roll looked like they beat no one of consequence in their Grade 1 wins, and the figures back up that feeling. Rattle N Roll's 81 career-best Beyer is not enough to make noise in here. Sure, he can continue to improve as most 2-years-olds rapidly do, but what is to say that the favorites with half as many starts do not have improvement in them as well?

As a Baffert trainee, Pinehurst will take money, but his Beyer went the wrong way in his second start and his TimeformUS figures are pedestrian compared to his top rivals.

Value play: If the two favorites get into a speed duel, look for Commandperformance to run them down. He earned the second-best Beyer and TimeformUS numbers in the field among all starters in their last starts, behind only Jack Christopher, who defeated him. If Jack Christopher is as good as most think, then that effort was no disgrace. Though a maiden, he showed sharp improvement in his second start and is bred to get better with racing and distance, being by Union Rags. He will relish two turns and could turn the tables on Jack Christopher with the right setup. 

2021 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1)