Breeders' Cup Juvenile 2020: Odds and analysis
After starting his career 4-for-4, Jackie’s Warrior deserves his role as the favorite in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Nov. 6 at Keeneland. However, his expected odds are not exactly appealing if betting the race from a vertical standpoint. Bettors need to think of some alternative choices or skip the race.
If Jackie’s Warrior loses, a fast pace is the probable culprit given his natural early speed. Using the past performances based on the pre-entries list, here is an analysis of each horse. The focus is on which ones can take advantage of a setup.
The Juvenile is carded as Race 10 with a post time of 5:10 p.m. EST.
1. Calibrate, 20-1 (Distorted Humor – Steven Asmussen/TBA – 2: 1-0-0 - $41,600): His effort in the local Breeders’ Futurity (G1) is hard to overlook. He broke a bit flat and never became involved at any point, finishing sixth by 13 ¼ lengths. Yet, Asmussen wants to try Calibrate in the Breeders’ Cup, which is a positive sign. If he runs, it means Asmussen sees something in Calibrate in the morning workouts that would lead him to forgive the Breeders’ Futurity flop. Furthermore, his maiden score on Aug. 15 at Saratoga is an impressive 4 ½-length score with a 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure. For a first-time starter, a 97 on TimeformUS is good. But Calibrate does not make the cut in this analysis based on the Breeders’ Futurity effort. If he had a more clear excuse, it would be forgivable. Toss.
2. Camp Hope, 50-1 (Summer Front – Kenneth McPeek/TBA – 1: 1-0-0 - $49,092): This one broke his maiden only a few days ago on Oct. 25 at Churchill Downs by four lengths. But the field he beat is questionable from a quality standpoint. Also, TimeformUS only gave him an 86 for the win, which is well below what he needs to compete in the Breeders’ Cup. With that said, most horses move forward in their second career starts as they figure out how to race. But this one needs a 15-point improvement to even hit the trifecta, and that is not likely to happen here. Toss.
3. Classier, 6-1 (Empire Maker – Bob Baffert/TBA – 1: 1-0-0 - $33,000): Most handicappers take Bob Baffert-trained 2-year-olds seriously, and for good reason. Sometimes it feels like he receives a never-ending supply of potential monsters. Classier is another regally-bred horse in Baffert’s care with a bright future after breaking his maiden by an easy four lengths at Santa Anita. On TimeformUS, his 99 speed figure is a good start, as he only needs to take a small step forward to win. As a caution though, Classier needs to answer the two-turn route question. Also, the pace scenario is against him if he flashes his natural speed, especially with Jackie’s Warrior present and others. There is no hard evidence Classier can sit off horses. It is hard to ignore his talent though, and Baffert is always a tough trainer to play against. Perhaps throw this runner into multi-race wagers, just in case. Win contender.
4. Dreamer’s Disease, 20-1 (Laoban – Robertino Diodoro/TBA – 4: 2-0-0 - $46,540): Well, here is another one who wants the lead. Dreamer’s Disease broke his maiden on turf at Ellis Park in pacesetting fashion, before pressing the pace and folding badly in the More Than Ready Stakes at Kentucky Downs. But once Dreamer’s Disease secured the lead again in a local dirt optional claimer on Oct. 3, he won again by 4 ½ lengths with a 99 on TimeformUS. Can he build upon that effort without the lead? Right now, the answer looks like no, and he does not figure to secure the lead with Classier, Jackie’s Warrior and Likeable all present up front. For that reason, he is ignorable until he finds more suitable pace situation. Toss.
5. Essential Quality, 8-1 (Tapit – Brad Cox/TBA – 2: 2-0-0 - $295,144): With two wins in two stats, including a 3 ¼-length score in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), Essential Quality is hard to knock. In that Breeders’ Futurity win, he made use of pressing tactics before putting away Upstriker and drawing clear of the field in the stretch. Keepmeinmind made a mild run for second, but he never was a real threat. But he does need another step forward off his 101 TimeformUS figure in the Breeders’ Futurity, especially since Jackie’s Warrior shows a 117 in his last start. His speed might work against him too with the abundance of speed signed up. Then again, his speed is tactical speed. This is a good horse, but the feeling is that a couple of these horses are better. Trifecta and superfecta players might use him. Use underneath.
6. Jackie’s Warrior, 7/5 (Maclean’s Music – Steven Asmussen/TBA – 4: 4-0-0 - $402,564): The expected heavy favorite basically toyed with Reinvestment Risk in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont. After letting him get close on the turn, Jackie’s Warrior displayed another gear and opened up again. He won by 5 ½ lengths with a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which is a great number for a 2-year-old colt. He also won the Hopeful Stakes (G1) and Saratoga Special in front-running fashion. In this spot, he faces more quality speed, slightly more distance and two turns for the first time. Given all the new factors working against him, accepting the favorite at low odds does not seem logical. Either bettors need to find alternative selections with better value, or skip the race altogether from a vertical standpoint. But for those playing multi-race wagers, he deserves a spot. Win contender.
7. Keepmeinmind, 30-1 (Laoban – Robertino Diodoro/TBA – 2: 0-2-0 - $95,280): This maiden put up two nice efforts in his short career. In his career debut at Churchill Downs, Keepmeinmind ran into some traffic problems en route to finishing second to Arabian Prince. Arabian Prince made one start afterwards in the Street Sense Stakes and could only manage fourth, but he had no pace to work with. As for Keepmeinmind, he backed up the maiden race by finishing second by 3 ¼ lengths to Essential Quality in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) with a mild rally late. But does Keepmeinmind need a confidence booster in a maiden race? Even with the placing in a Grade 1, this Laoban colt still lacks the experience of crossing the wire first. Also, his 95 on TimeformUS in the Breeders’ Futurity appears mild at best. On the positive side, the pace will set up nicely for his late kick, and his ceiling is probably higher than a 95. Keep him in mind for the bottom slots of the trifecta. Use underneath.
8. King Fury, 30-1 (Curlin – Kenneth McPeek/TBA – 3: 2-0-0 - $116,979): In a nice reversal of his eighth-place finish in the local Breeders’ Futurity (G1), King Fury ran at Churchill Downs and took the Street Sense Stakes. Granted, he only won by half a length with a mild 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He beat Super Stock, and that horse was third in the Breeders’ Futurity. It only shows that King Fury’s eighth in that race is a tossout, possibly because of the wide trip from Post 10. The 96 in the Street Sense is nothing earth shattering though. If he ends up running, he needs to improve significantly in his fourth start while facing the best 2-year-olds. Moving back into Grade 1 company, he is best observed for now rather than bet on. Toss.
9. Likeable, 15-1 (Frosted – Todd Pletcher/TBA – 2: 1-1-0 - $49,050): Likeable’s maiden score at Belmont is visually impressive from the ease in which he won. He was gliding towards the wire late as if in a morning gallop. However, it is a concern that he did not switch leads. Even though these horses are competing in the Breeders’ Cup, they are only inexperienced 2-year-olds. But another concern is the pace scenario, which pits him against other pacesetters such as Jackie’s Warrior and Classy. Likeable did stalk in his career debut at Saratoga in a seven-furlong maiden race on his way to finishing second. Sometimes horses who stalk in sprints cannot run the same way in routes. It is also difficult to go from beating an easy maiden field to facing the best in an unfavorable pace scenario situation. For what it is worth, his TimeformUS figure for the maiden win is a 102. But he is a reluctant play-against for now, with the realization he could move forward and factor in. Toss.
10. Next, 30-1 (Not This Time – Wesley Ward/TBA – 3: 2-0-0 - $96,894): Like a couple of others in this race, Next won his most recent start in wire-to-wire fashion. He went to the lead uncontested in a local off-the-turf route and opened up by an impressive 11 ¾ lengths in the stretch run. But as a word of caution, TimeformUS only gave Next a 98 figure. Similar to the others, he could move forward as a developing horse. But this is a brutal pace situation for him. Toss.
11. Reinvestment Risk, 12-1 (Upstart – Chad Brown/TBA – 3: 1-2-0 - $139,600): In two tries against Jackie’s Warrior, Reinvestment Risk lost to him twice. Reinvestment Risk did make up some small ground on Jackie’s Warrior at the end of the Hopeful Stakes (G1) at Saratoga. That glimmer of hope made some handicappers believe the one-mile distance of the Champagne Stakes (G1) could help close the gap between the two horses. But after Jackie’s Warrior let Reinvestment Risk move close to him on the turn, Jackie’s Warrior suddenly found more and began to open up again in the stretch run in a professional manner. Reinvestment Risk also moved awkwardly while attempting to switch leads. He might need more time to develop in easier races before tackling the best. Right now, he is not good enough to win, while others are more enticing underneath. Toss.
12. Rombauer, 20-1 (Twirling Candy – Michael McCarthy/TBA – 3: 1-1-0 - $90,500): Rombauer closed for second in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita, only losing by ¾ of a length to Get Her Number with a 101 on TimeformUS. The quality of that field is questionable. Notice that the third-place Spielberg is still a maiden in three starts, while the fourth-place Waspirant had broken his maiden with a low 83 on TimeformUS. If Get Her Number was in the Juvenile field, how would he do? The public would view him as a longshot. On a positive note, Rombauer did run faster than Princess Noor earlier in the card. Also, he receives a pace setup here with numerous horses wanting the lead. Because of the uncertainly of his class, he is best used in the bottom slots. But expect him to pick off horses late because of the pace scenario. Use underneath.
13. Sittin On Go, 8-1 (Brody’s Cause – Dale Romans/TBA – 2: 2-0-0 - $145,520): While Sittin On Go did receive a mild pace setup in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs, he made a nice move to win by 2 ½ lengths over Midnight Bourbon, with the familiar Super Stock another length back in third. He shows a 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the victory, which is one of the higher figures in the field. If he gets a clean trip off a pace setup in this spot, he is almost certainly capable of breaking 110 on TimeformUS. Taking a late closer in a large field is always a risk because of the given traffic. But given the expected pace scenario and the value price he offers, he is playable. Overseas, Sittin On Go is trading around 8-1, and that sounds about right for his American price once live wagering starts. He is the top selection. The pick.
14. Smiley Sobotka, 50-1 (Brody’s Cause – Dale Romans/TBA – 2: 1-1-0 - $36,300): Romans starts another Brody’s Cause colt in Smiley Sobotka. This one is not as talented. He broke his maiden locally by two lengths with an 88 on TimeformUS. At least the effort came in a two-turn route over this course. The connections paid $185k for this colt as a yearling, indicating something stood out at the sales last year about him. Based on current form though, he is too slow to factor in. Toss.
Also Eligible
15. Hot Rod Charlie, TBA (Oxbow – Doug O’Neill/TBA – 4: 1-0-1 - $43,700): On Oct. 2, he broke his maiden by a neck over Parnelli at Santa Anita with a 92 on TimeformUS. Notice that the duo put 16 ½ lengths on the third-place Bolu. But again, the California group of 2-year-olds seems weak this year, minus Classier. Also, the pace scenario works against his natural speed. Toss.
Conclusion:
As long as Sittin On Go receives enough pace and a clear trip, he can take aim at the top of the stretch and mow them down. But he does need the pace to collapse, because Jackie’s Warrior and Classier are talented horses and potential monsters.
At 8-1 or higher, Sittin On Go is tempting as a Win and Place bet.
In multi-race wagers, Sittin On Go, Jackie’s Warrior and Classier are the ones to use.