Breeders' Cup Friday: Late Pick 4 analysis
In 2019, the 50-cent late Pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Friday paid a whopping $18,171.65 after Storm the Court stormed home at big odds in the Juvenile. A year later, it paid a cool $3,081.55. Fire At Will was a challenging horse to have at 30-1, but the rest of the sequence was fairly straightforward with Vequist, Aunt Pearl and Essential Quality winning.
[3 big favorites that can lose on Breeders' Cup Saturday]
It takes only one decent price to make this bet an extremely profitable one and a couple of prices to make this bet a life-changing score. Below we take an in-depth look at this year's sequence while considering the varied budget constraints of bettors.
Horses placed in the "use" category are the ones that those with a smaller budget should use at minimum. Those runners combine to make a ticket that costs only $12. Bettors with a larger budget should also pick and choose runners from the "contender" category for their tickets.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
Use: Juju's Map, Echo Zulu
Contender: Tarabi, Hidden Connection
Echo Zulu has been dominant in her early career and will take some beating in here. Juju's Map has enough speed to keep the favorite in her sights and has two-turn experience at the distance. I give her a great chance to get the better of Echo Zulu in the last furlong, but both fillies look a step above the rest of this group.
That includes Hidden Connection, who has been very impressive in two starts. I question who she has defeated and do not think she is quite as fast as the two top choices, which could put her out of her element early. She is so lightly raced, however, that it is not impossible to foresee her taking another step forward to win. If all three of these fillies go crazy on the front end, it could set things up for Tarabi, who was soundly defeated by Echo Zulu but has the right to improve with a better pace scenario.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Use: Mise En Scene
Contender: Hello You, Koala Princess, Consumer Spending, Pizza Bianca
Mise En Scene is strictly the horse to beat here. She owns experience at one mile and around a left-handed turn. She has faced the best competition in the field and runs like a filly who will adore a fast-paced American mile. She has a great turn of foot and was stymied behind horses for a good portion of her last race. Despite the trouble, she finished ahead of Wild Beauty, who crushed Pizza Bianca. Those with a lower budget should feel good about singling Miss En Scene, but dealing with a full field from post 13 is by no means an easy feat.
If you do not single her, it gets tough as there are many directions to go. Unlike Mise En Scene, I do not have a strong opinion on the rest of the field. Hello You has kept strong European form and seems to appreciate firm ground. Koala Princess is stretching out for the first time, but she is bred to handle distance and has looked good in two starts. Consumer Spending has not faced much, but she is improving and has Chad Brown and Flavien Prat in her corner. Pizza Bianca won going long on debut, which is never easy, and followed that up with a nice effort in the Natalama (G1). If Mise En Scene runs into trouble, this race becomes as wide open as any Breeders' Cup race.
Use: Commandperformance, Corniche, Jack Christopher
Contender: Oviatt Class
Corniche and Jack Christopher have been touted from day one and have not disappointed. It would not be surprising if either runner proves they are a star with a dominant victory. There is a scenario where both speedy colts hook up early from challenging posts and run each other into the ground. If this happens, look for Commandperformance to take advantage and break his maiden on the big stage. He ran a good second to Jack Christopher last time and, unlike the favorite, has the breeding to improve with added ground.
Those looking for a big price can consider Oviatt Class, who also would benefit from a pace meltdown. He easily defeated Barossa in his first start around two turns on the dirt and followed that with a fast-closing third in the paceless American Pharoah (G1). He is a live contender who will be overlooked.
Use: Dubawi Legend, Modern Games, Portfolio Company, Albahr
Contender: Tiz the Bomb, Dakota Gold
This race is a tough way to end the sequence. Like the Juvenile Fillies Turf, my top pick was hindered by a bad post. Dubawi Legend will have to be a star to win from post 14, but he really might be this good. His debut was sparkling and his last Group 1 effort behind the very talented Native Trail was a beaut. He is bred to thrive at a mile and is tactical enough to stay in contact before unleashing a big run.
If he falters, Charlie Appleby has a pair of runners who could be up to the task. Modern Games and Albahr have not faced the same class of runners that Dubawi Legend has, but they each come into this race on winning streaks and seem to be getting better every start. Appleby has brought nothing but live runners to North America all year, and these two are no exception. Portfolio Company is America's best hope in here. The Chad Brown colt has run well despite being part of slow-paced races. He will likely improve with speed to run at.
For those with a bigger budget, Tiz the Bomb and Dakota Gold have looked good beating lesser competition and could prove to be this good. A full international field of lightly raced turf runners is never easy to forecast, so save some money to spread in here.