Breeders’ Cup 2022: DeRosa’s fair odds for $2 million Mile
Unlike the Turf, in which we tried to identify a potential key race but neither of the top finishers pre-entered the World Championships, our key race for the Breeders’ Cup Mile did produce our key to playing the race – at least based on the pre-entries.
There are still some wrinkles, though. The key race in question was not actually either horse’s final prep for the Mile, and both horses lost their subsequent starts. Modern Games was second to Bayside Boy in the Queen Elizabeth II (G1) at Ascot, and Ivar was runner-up to Annapolis in the Keeneland Turf Mile (G1).
All four of those horses are expected for the Mile on Nov. 5 at Keeneland, but I foresee the runners up turning the tables on their foes based on the strength of their penultimate prep, the Woodbine Mile.
That race saw Modern Games run his record to 2-for-2 in North America. He had won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last year at Del Mar, although he was considered a non-starter for wagering purposes.
Ivar chased Modern Games home futilely in the Woodbine Mile, but there could be more pace signed on in the Mile.
Several of the other Europe-based horses factor on class, but questions surround their ability to handle American-style turf racing variables such as firmer ground and two turns.
| BC Mile | Ed’s line | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Modern Games | 6-1 | Last year’s Juvenile Turf winner dazzled in Woodbine Mile. |
| Ivar | 8-1 | Chased Modern Games at Woodbine. Turns tables with pace? |
| Annapolis | 10-1 | Last out at course and distance was sparkling. |
| Dreamloper | 10-1 | One of several Euros with best races on soft ground. |
| Kinross | 10-1 | Never been a mile, but pedigree says yes. |
| Regal Glory | 12-1 | Came back as 6yo with races like this in mind. |
| Casa Creed | 15-1 | Think better will be running late with him. |
| Domestic Spending | 16-1 | The second-greatest comeback since Lazarus? |
| Order of Australia | 18-1 | Best may be good enough; need big price that we see his best. |
| Smooth Like Strait | 18-1 | Interesting pace presence, but layoff a concern. |
| Bayside Boy | 20-1 | Beat Modern Games at 33-1, but USA is Modern Games’s game. |
| Beyond Briliant | 20-1 | Maybe keeps Smooth Like Strait honest. |
| Malavath | 40-1 | 0-for-3 at distance, but did take move forward last out going 7f. |
| Saffron Beach | 40-1 | Wrong way last out, but 4-for-8 at mile, better on firmer. |
| Pogo | 50-1 | Another stretching out to mile but gets class tested here. |
| Also eligibles | 50-1 | Any of the 4 would be big prices if drawn in. |