Breeders’ Cup: Early top picks for all 14 races on HorseCenter
This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman ratchet up their Breeders' Cup coverage by offering early top picks for all 14 races of the world championships.
There are 57 days remaining before the Breeders’ Cup is contested Oct. 31 and Nov. 1 at Del Mar, and the races are taking shape. Plenty can happen in the next eight weeks, but for many horses, such as the Breeders’ Cup Classic favorite Sovereignty, their final prep race has been run and they will now be trained up to the richest weekend of American racing.
Who do Matt and Brian like best at this point? Take an early look at all of the prestigious races as they each offer analysis for their top selection in every Breeders’ Cup race beginning with future stars Friday at Del Mar.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Brian: Ted Noffey. It’s hard not to be excited about this handsome son of Into Mischief. He was a standout on looks before the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga and ran to them when winning by daylight with big, race horse strides. Plenty of impressive juvenile males have run so far, but I believe this one is for real.
Matt: Ted Noffey. Trainer Todd Pletcher was making all of the right moves the last few days of the Saratoga meeting, which allowed him to tie Chad Brown for the trainer’s title. Ted Noffey was impressive as a maiden winner and even more so in the Hopeful, where he looked like a winner every step of the way. Pletcher now has won the Juvenile five times, including 3 out of the last 4 years. The Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland will be next for Ted Noffey.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
Brian: Explora. Bred to go long, this Bob Baffert-trained filly ran to her expectations and then some in her Aug. 17 debut at Del Mar. Not only did she run fast going 5 1/2 furlongs, but she was geared down before even hitting the stretch. Sired by Blame and out of a Bernardini mare, she should only get better as distances increase. The Del Mar Debutante will be next for her.
Matt: Tommy Jo. Pletcher swept the prestigious Grade 1 stakes on closing weekend at the Spa in the Hopeful and with Tommy Jo in the Spinaway. Like her stablemate Ted Noffey, she is owned by Spendthrift Farm and was sired by their leading stallion Into Mischief. Tommy Jo may prep for the Breeders’ Cup in the Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland. Amazingly, Pletcher has not won the Juvenile Fillies.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
Brian: Pacific Avenue. Despite being on the wrong end of a four-horse photo in the recent Solario Stakes (G3) at Sandown, the son of Dubawi ran well on softer ground than he likely wanted in only his second career start. An impressive debut winner over a very good stablemate before that, this Charlie Appleby-Godolphin charge should appreciate the firm turf at Del Mar
Matt: Final Score. I pretty much defer to Brian’s worldly knowledge when it comes to the European contenders for the Breeders’ Cup. Maybe I spent too much time at Saratoga, but I land on another Pletcher trainee and this one is owned by Repole Stable. He started three times in upstate New York, moving from a second-place debut to a maiden score and then a win in the With Anticipation (G3). The Pilgrim (G2) at Aqueduct or the Bourbon (G2) are next race possibles.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Brian: Time to Dream. Trainer Todd Pletcher is certainly loaded in the 2-year-old department, and this daughter of Not This Time is among his best. Her turn of foot in winning both her debut and the recent P.G. Johnson Stakes at Saratoga were electric. The Europeans are always dangerous, but the Americans have fared pretty well in this race over the years.
Matt: Time to Dream. The young sire Not This Time is turning out winners on both the dirt and the turf. Pletcher won this race, which joined the Breeders’ Cup in 2008, only once as Chad Brown has dominated it. Time to Dream is another one from Repole, and she won twice on the firm turf at Saratoga with a maiden and the P. G. Johnson.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
Brian: Charles Darwin. The Aidan O’Brien-trained son of No Nay Never, looked like a full-grown man against boys in the five-furlong Norfolk Stakes (G2) at Royal Ascot. If he comes over, I have to believe he will be the one to beat in the Juvenile Turf Sprint.
Matt: Bobrovsky. Bobrovsky is co-owned and trained by Dale Romans. He began his career on the dirt at Churchill Downs in June with a second-place finish. At Saratoga he broke his maiden on the main track and then won the Skidmore, which is the turf sprint for 2-year-old males during the summer meeting. Bobrovsky chased the pace and made up five lengths down the stretch to win by nearly two lengths.
Breeders' Cup Classic
Brian: Forever Young. I saw no point in trying to beat Sovereignty in the Travers (G1), but both going west and taking on older horses for the first time will be enough for me to try to beat the favorite in the Classic. With all the American horses to bet, I believe there will be value on Forever Young this year, and I still think he is as good as any horse in the world on dirt. A good prep and he should be fresh and ready for an even stronger run at Del Mar in the big one.
Matt: Sovereignty. Sovereignty is the best horse in the country hands down, no questions asked. He is an impressive horse to look at and he is an impressive horse when racing. The son of Into Mischief became the first 3-year-old in 30 years to win the Kentucky Derby, the Belmont Stakes and the Travers. Historical note that since 2000 seven 3-year-olds won the Classic, including in 2024 and three years in a row from 2014 to 2016. Sovereignty has been handled with such confidence by Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado. I don’t think I have enjoyed a 3-year-old this much since American Pharoah in 2015.
Breeders' Cup Distaff
Brian: Thorpedo Anna. No surprise here. I liked her race in the Personal Ensign (G1) considering the pressure she was under. McPeek should have her in top form for her last two starts of the year, which will culminate in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff once again. Having already shipped out and won at Del Mar, I like her chances to become a repeat winner in eight weeks. Thorpedo Anna is my pick.
Matt: Thorpedo Anna. Brian and I got together the past two years at Saratoga to enjoy Thorpedo Anna. She was second in the Travers in 2024, went on to win the Distaff and then was named horse of the year. This summer she came out on top in the Personal Ensign photo finish and will be hard to beat at Del Mar as she goes for two Distaffs in a row just like Royal Delta did at 3 and then 4.
Breeders' Cup Turf
Brian: Rebel's Romance. The globe-trotting gelding can make history with a third win in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and as of today, there is no horse I prefer for the race. It will be interesting to see what other international runners come over, but we already know that this 7-year-old gelding is running as well as ever and enjoys the American courses, including Del Mar. The Canadian International (G1) should be next.
Matt: Rebel's Romance. What is not to like about Rebel’s Romance? He is a winning machine with 19 victories from 28 starts and over $14.1 million in winnings all over the world. There are 10 Grade or Group 1 wins in there, including the Westminster Pries Berlin in Germany last in August. Last year he also used a Group 1 victory in Germany as his prep race for the Breeders’ Cup.
Breeders' Cup Mile
Brian: Henri Matisse. After winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf in style last year, this Aidan O’Brien runner has proven himself this year at 3 as one of the best milers in Europe. Full of class, he likes firm turf and has a big turn of foot. Those qualities were successful at Del Mar last year and should be a good reason to bring him over again in 2025. He is the horse to beat.
Matt: Deterministic. Deterministic has become the best turf horse in America this summer under the care of Miguel Clement, who will be going for his first Breeders’ Cup victory since taking over the Clement barn. Deterministic won a pair of Grade 1 stakes at Saratoga in the Manhattan and then the Fourstardave. HorseCenter regulars know that I am a big fan of this horse and have to make him my pick in the Mile.
Breeders' Cup Sprint
Brian: Sweet Azteca. While I would love to pick Book’em Danno in this one, it does not look likely he will make the trip. Instead, I will look outside the box and pick this big, fast mare. I think she has a better chance to win a Breeders’ Cup race at six furlongs than she does at seven. She is going really good right now, and I honestly don’t think anyone can outrun her early. I hope her connections consider this option.
Matt: Book'em Danno. I am going stay New Jersey strong and make Book’em Danno my Sprint pick. I hope that this New Jersey-bred will show up at Del Mar because he is the best sprinter in the country. He looked great winning three times at Saratoga, most recently in the Forego (G1) where he burst through tight quarters between horses to get the win.
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Brian: Full Serrano. This race is clearly very fluid still. If Nysos is in, he will be dangerous. If Locked is in, he also will be dangerous. One horse I am certain of being pointed for this is Full Serrano. Sadler says this South American import is best at a mile on dirt, and it sure looked that way in his impressive return. He has done little wrong since arriving in America, including a win in this one last year. He may be even better this year.
Matt: Journalism. After running second in the Pacific Classic behind Fierceness, the Dirt Mile might be a winning spot for the Preakness and Haskell Stakes (G1) winner. The Breeders’ Cup Classic is going to be loaded with the top older horses and Sovereignty and would be the toughest race of his career. Journalism would be one of the likely winners of the Dirt Mile, which was won by outstanding horses in the past few years such as Cody’s Wish, Life is Good and Knicks Go.
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf
Brian: She Feels Pretty. I’ve been a fan of this Cherie DeVaux charge all along and I see little reason to jump off the bandwagon now. She is tractable and has an impressive turn of foot at seemingly any distance. There is no doubt that the internationals will be tough, especially at this distance, but I really like the race She Feels Pretty ran when she last visited Southern California.
Matt: She Feels Pretty She Feels Pretty is the best female turf horse in America, with four Grade 1 victories in her last six starts. As Brian mentioned, she is proven on the typically firm and neatly mowed turf courses in California, although she also is a winner on softer surfaces.
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Brian: Kopion. With the experiment of running longer likely over, I expect Mandella to have this strong sprinting filly at her very best at the Breeders’ Cup. At the seven-furlong distance, the daughter of Omaha Beach already has run huge races, such as the La Brea (G1) and the Derby City Distaff (G1). With this race as the goal, I look for her to come in razor sharp. Kopion will be a strong top pick for me in the Filly & Mare Sprint.
Matt: Ways and Means. Ways and Means is the fastest female sprinter in the east and wins her races with an explosive turn of foot down the stretch. She had to miss a scheduled start at Saratoga but is back on the work tab with a four-furlong breeze Sunday. It may come as a bit of a surprise that trainer Chad Brown already won the Filly & Mare Sprint three times. If she returns in the Gallant Bloom (G2) at the end of the month, that would be a great prep for the Breeders’ Cup.
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
Brian: Bring Theband Home. At Del Mar, this race is only five furlongs, and because of that I like to pick a horse who specializes in the distance. Mark Casse has this speedy veteran at the top of his game right now, and the shorter the better for him. His two stakes wins at Saratoga both impressed me. It’s clearly a wide-open race at this point, but if I had to pick one it would be Bring Theband Home.
Matt: Ag Bullet. Ag Bullet is in excellent form with a pair of wins in the Jaipur (G1) at Saratoga and then the $2 million Ladies Turf Sprint (G2) at Kentucky Downs. California-based trainer Richard Baltas excels with turf runners. Ag is chemical symbol for silver and even though I hear her name in race calls as Ag Bullet, I like to call the gray 5-year-old mare Silver Bullet because she is so fast.