Breeders' Cup Distaff fair odds: Value opportunity is brewing

It is rare that the shortest field is likely to produce the best value opportunity, but that is the situation brewing in the Breeders' Cup Distaff as part of the world championships Nov. 1-2 at Del Mar.

The Distaff is unlikely to have more than 10 starters let alone a full field of 14, but what it lacks in volume it more than makes up in depth considering the top two choices figure to be presumptive champion 3-year-old filly and horse of the year candidate Thorpedo Anna and last year's champion older female and Distaff winner Idiomatic. 

Thorpedo Anna is as low as even money in some international bookmaking markets, and why not? The Fast Anna filly is undefeated in five starts against 3-year-old fillies this year, including four Grade 1 wins by a combined 15 lengths.

She also just missed against Fierceness in the Travers Stakes (G1), and all that colt has done is win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile en route to champion 2-year-old male honors before winning the Florida Derby (G1) and Travers this year.

Idiomatic is no slouch either, of course, going 3-for-5 this year in a title defense season with two Grade 1 wins to bookend the season so far. I see her as the most likely winner of this race, which given Thorpedo Anna's overwhelming favoritism currently means this will be a great race for me to bet my opinion.

Yes, it is disappointing that Idiomatic snapped a six-race win streak when second to Randomized in the Phipps (G1) on the Belmont Stakes undercard and then lost to Raging Sea in the Personal Ensign on Travers Stakes eve, but maybe she just does not like Saratoga. The Curlin mare is 11-for-13 lifetime outside New York and only 1-for-4 in the Empire State. She never has raced at Del Mar, but did ship to Santa Anita for Breeders' Cup glory last year.

I also think Idiomatic still has upside. According to Ragozin Data, her loss to Raging Sea two back was the best race of her career, the Spinster (G1) was a tour de force, and we know she can handle this prep schedule into a West Coast Breeders' Cup.

This race is exciting from a wagering perspective not only because I'm so bullish on getting value on my most likely winner but also because Thorpedo Anna does not even have to be a part of the exotics.

Japan-based wunderkind Awesome Result is getting attention in the bookmaking markets, and we've already seen Japan contenders cross the Pacific to win the Distaff when Marche Lorraine upset Dunbar Road in 2021. 

There is also Scylla, who prepped in the seven-furlong Ballerina after trying Adare Manor in the Clement Hirsch (G1) two back. Adare Manor would be vying for favoritism in here even against Thorpedo Anna, and Scylla hung tough with that Bob Baffert trainee. She will be worth a look here.