Breeders’ Cup Distaff fair odds: Who survives a hot pace?
Nobody likes a bad beat story, so I'll keep this short.
I made the biggest win bet of my life on Dunbar Road in the 2021 Breeders' Cup Distaff. She lost by a nose to Marche Lorraine, and in the words of her trainer Chad Brown, "I don't think I'll ever get over it."
Well, forever is a long time considering most of it hasn't happened yet, but maybe we can take a giant step toward closure this year when the Distaff returns to Southern California.
I see Idiomatic as the most talented horse among this group but not exactly sure of what the plan will be. Others have quicker early pace ratings, but Idiomatic has carved things her own way on the front end in both her last two Grade 1 wins, which are a part of a four-race graded-stakes winning streak and a 7-for-8 mark this season.
No surprise that with this kind of record, Idiomatic is ultra consistent. She has fired fast-enough-to-win-this Ragozin figures in each of her last three, but they've all been the same race. Maybe she can improve a little on Nov. 4, but major development is unlikely after this long of a campaign. In other words, what you see is what you get.
Search Results has a little more upside with just half as many starts as the likely favorite this year, and I like the way Brown is tinkering with the best prep schedule to win the Distaff.
Dunbar Road had run in the Spinster four weeks out at Keeneland. Last year with Search Results, he rested her from Travers weekend. This year, Search Results prepped in the Locust Grove (G3) seven weeks out at Churchill Downs.
That was a gate-to-wire win, and I'm not sure that'll be the plan against these. But numbers-wise she's the only one right there with Idiomatic. The other two are local hope Adare Manor, whom I think will be on the lead, and Search Results' stablemate Randomized. She's a 3-year-old, though, and although she's battling for a championship with Pretty Mischievous, I don't think either sophomore is up to this task relative to their odds. Indeed, 3-year-olds are 0-for-12 in the Distaff since Monomoy Girl won in 2018.
From a wagering standpoint, I'll be interested in the prices, especially exacta probables, with the only closers in the race being Clairiere, Le Da Vida, Pretty Mischievous and Wet Paint. I don't think the race will completely collapse. Either Idiomatic or Search Results will be around at the end, so if Le Da Vida is completely ignored then using her as a key with the top two could still be OK.