Breeders' Cup Distaff fair odds: Big favorite is vulnerable

When a horse reaches celebrity status, it becomes controversial to pick against that horse.

I saw it with Zenyatta and to a lesser extent American Pharoah, and I expect to see it again this weekend with Thorpedo Anna in the Breeders' Cup Distaff on Saturday at Del Mar.

Look, we all know she's special. She is the certain champion 3-year-old filly and is the even money favorite with Draft Kings to be horse of the year.

Unfortunately, she is going to be odds-on in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, and I just don’t think she wins this race more than half the time, so that makes her a terrible bet and impossible for me to pick on top.

What is it that I don't like? Based on Ragozin Data, her Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes victory in September at Parx was a step backward performance-wise compared with her previous efforts.

I do not consider this a bounce because she has been consistently great all year. The Cotillion was not a reaction to a superlative performance. Maybe it was a bad day or maybe she's tailing off form. At 4-to-5 or lower against good older fillies and mares, I'll bet that it's the latter.

So, who do I like? Sometimes when I'm against an odds-on favorite, I'm looking to cast a wide net and just be right about the favorite losing. But in this instance, I'm going to narrow in on a play that is my best bet of the weekend.

Awesome Result is undefeated in seven starts, and Japan handicapper Alex Henry made a compelling case for the Justify filly's ability to upset Thorpedo Anna in the Distaff. Of course, Japan already has success in this race, having upset the 2021 version, also at Del Mar, with Marche Lorraine.

I liked her even before reading Henry's piece, but no doubt her accolades adda to my confidence. What caught my eye about this one even before being dazzled by her replays is that her four stakes wins have come at four racetracks, which augurs well for the ship to California.

I will bet Awesome Result to win and will single her in most of my multi-race wagers.