Breeders' Cup Distaff: How do the speed figures stack up?

Few divisions have experienced more change at the top this year than the Breeders' Cup Distaff division. It was just a few months ago that Nest, Secret Oath and Clairiere were considered the clear leaders among this group.

Secret Oath has been retired, and Nest will bypass the Breeders' Cup after a subpar effort in the Spinster (G1). Clairiere produced a clunker of her own when running fifth in the Personal Ensign (G1) last out over a wet track.

Idiomatic, Adare Manor, Search Results and Randomized have surged to the front of the division with recent impressive wins. But with so much fluidity in the division throughout the year, can any runner be trusted at low odds?

Based on speed figures, that answer is no. Likely favorite Idiomatic has strong credentials and the top speed figures in all three categories analyzed, but her margin for error is very small. 

Six contenders with top Beyer Speed Figures are within just 4 points of each other this year, and seven runners with TimeformUS Speed Figures are within 5 points of each other.

Short fields and slow early paces have been a common theme in this division in 2023. Idiomatic, Adare Manor, Search Results and Randomized all took advantage of easy early leads while earning their prep victories.

Something will have to give on the front end when they all collide in this race. According to the speed figures, it would not be a surprise to see Clairiere or Le Da Vida close into a contested pace to run them all down.

Below is a closer look at this year's best Beyer Speed Figures, TimeformUS Figures and HRN Speed Figures for the prospective 2023 Breeders' Cup Distaff field. Beyer Speed Figures and TimeformUS figures are courtesy of Daily Racing Form.