Breeders’ Cup Distaff 2023: Early odds and analysis

The $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff drew a field of 12 pre-entered fillies and mares who will race 1 1/8 miles at Santa Anita on Saturday. This is an accomplished field where 11 of them are stakes winners and eight have a Grade 1 victory and two have a Grade 2 score.

The Distaff is one of the original Breeders’ Cup races from 1984 and since then 16 favorites won the biggest race of the year for fillies and mares on the dirt. The winner of the Distaff went on to be crowned a division champion 19 times.

To help make a wagering plan, here is an early full field analysis for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. The morning line odds from Horse Racing Nation are tentative awaiting the final entries, jockey assignments, and the post-position draw which will be announced on Monday.

The field is listed in alphabetical order with the jockey listed from their most recent race.

A Mo Reay, 15-1. Uncle Mo – Brad Cox / Flavien Prat – 16: 5-3-3 - $862,775. A Mo Reay won the Beholder Mile (G1) at Santa Anita in March with a closing move. Since then she raced exclusively in graded stakes at three different tracks and most recently was second in the Beldame (G2) behind Randomized with a pace-pressing trip. Toss.

Adare Manor, 3-1. Uncle Mo – Bob Baffert / Juan Hernandez – 13: 7-4-0 - $981,600. Adare Manor comes to the Distaff riding a five-race winning streak that includes the Clement Hirsch (G1) at Del Mar and three Grade 2s at Santa Anita. The 4-year-old prefers to race on the lead and was an odds-on favorite in all six of her starts this year. Win contender.

Clairiere, 8-1. Curlin – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario – 21: 8-6-3 - $3,166,392. Clairiere will be making her third start in the Distaff and last year rallied from eighth to finish third beaten by just a neck. Since then, she won a pair of Grade 1 races with triple digit Beyer Speed Figures most recently in the Ogden Phipps at Belmont Park in June. The daughter of Curlin was second in the Shuvee (G2) behind Nest and then was not a factor on a sloppy track at Saratoga. Clairiere is likely to get the right pace scenario and come with the highest odds she has had since last year in the Breeders’ Cup. Top choice.

Desert Dawn, 20-1. Cupid – Phil D’Amato / Umberto Rispoli – 16: 2-4-5 - $816,525. Desert Dawn finished in the top three behind Adare Manor in her last three races. Actually she has hit the board in 9 out of 16 career starts. Her last victory was in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) a year and a half ago. Desert Dawn will be a long shot with a chance to get in the trifecta or superfecta. Use underneath.

Hoosier Philly, 30-1. Into Mischief – Tom Amoss / John Velazquez – 9: 4-1-1 - $708,410. Hoosier Philly won the first three starts of her career as a 2-year-old at Churchill Downs including the Rags to Riches and the Golden Rod (G2). The daughter of Into Mischief got her only win of 2023 in the Monomoy Girl at Ellis Park in June. The rest of her races were in Grade 1 and 2 stakes. Toss.

Idiomatic, 5-2. Curlin – Brad Cox / Florent Geroux – 11: 8-1-2 - $1,416,840. Idiomatic won her last four starts in graded stakes races including the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland. Three of those victories were on the front-end but she showed some versatility when she had to come from behind following a bad start in the Delaware Handicap (G2). Idiomatic won her only two starts at nine furlongs in her two recent Grade 1 wins. Win contender.

Le Da Vida, 30-1. Gemologist – Ignacio Correas/ Vincent Cheminaud – 24: 8-5-5 - $615,124. Le Da Vida began her career in Chile where she won five times. The daughter of Gemologist came to America last year won a pair of allowances in Kentucky and the Lady Jacqueline at Thistledown this past summer. She also has finished in the top three in graded stakes three times. Last time Le Da Vida was second to Idiomatic in the Spinster with a closing move. Use underneath.

Pretty Mischievous, 8-1. Into Mischief – Brendan Walsh / Tyler Gaffalione – 10: 7-2-1 - $1,944,560. Pretty Mischievous won three consecutive Grade 1 races in the Kentucky Oaks, Acorn, and the Test by narrow margins after stalking trips. She did win her only start going the Distaff distance which was in the Oaks. Last time out she lost in the Cotillion (G1) on a sloppy track by a half-length. She will face older horses for the first time in the Distaff. Win contender.

Randomized, 6-1. Nyquist – Chad Brown / Joel Rosario – 6: 4-0-1 - $603,350. Randomized is another filly in this field that is on a winning streak. She had a pair of victories at Saratoga where she became a Grade 1 winner in the Alabama and then beat older horses in the Beldame with another front-end performance. Win contender.

Sabra Tuff, 50-1. Cross Traffic – Dallas Stewart / Reylu Gutierrez – 11: 1-1-1 - $267,360. Sabra Tuff broke her maiden in her first career start in June 2022 but has not won a race since then. She ran in stakes races after that including six in graded races. This year Sabra Tuff could not run better than fourth-place finishes. Toss.

Search Results, 6-1. Flatter – Chad Brown / Tyler Gaffalione – 16: 7-3-5 - $1,903,810. Search Results ran out of the money only once in her 16 race career and that was in the last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff. That consistent record earned the 5-year-old $1.9 million. She won the Locust Grove (G3) at Churchill in September while racing on the lead. Search Results won the Acorn (G1) in 2021 and was beaten by a half-length by Clairiere in the Ogden Phipps. Trifecta finish possible.

Wet Paint, 15-1. Blame – Brad Cox / Flavien Prat – 10: 5-3-0 - $1,177,175. Wet Paint became a Grade 1 winner in the Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga with a late rally. She won three times at Oaklawn Park on the road to the Kentucky Oaks and then finished fourth in that race. Wet Paint has been away since the Saratoga meeting and in training with Brad Cox in Kentucky. She will make her first race against older horses in the Distaff. Use underneath.

Summary: The basic handicapping rule that the pace makes the race sums up what is expected in the Distaff. Adare Manor, Hoosier Philly, Idiomatic and Randomized are in excellent form and prefer to race on the lead which should produce a fast pace.

Therefore the advantage in the 1 1/8 mile contest goes to late runners like Clairiere, Pretty Mischievous, Search Results and Wet Paint. Clairiere is the best of them and will probably be available at unusually high odds.