Breeders’ Cup Distaff 2022: Odds and analysis

The $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff, which will be run on Saturday over a distance 1 1/8 miles, drew a field of eight fillies and mares. Among them are seven Grade 1 winners and six who have earned more than $1 million.

Since 2010, 3-year-olds won the Distaff four times, and three of them came back to win the race again – Royal Delta in 2011 and 2012, Beholder in 2013 and 2016, and Monomoy Girl in 2018 and 2020. The fourth filly to win at 3 was Untapable in 2014.

This year’s Distaff field has four 3-year-olds led by the 9-5 morning-line favorite Nest. She is joined by Secret Oath, Awake At Midnyte and Society.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff with the official morning-line odds from Keeneland. The Distaff is carded as race 9 of 12 with the post time set for 3:55 p.m. EDT.

1. Malathaat (3-1 – Curlin – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez – 13: 9-3-1 - $2,750,825) Malathaat finished in the top three in every one of her 13 starts, including wins in her last two races in the Personal Ensign (G1) and then the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland. Todd Pletcher put blinkers on Malathaat three starts ago, and they seem to have transformed her from being a filly who won her races by doing just enough to winning the Spinster by more than five lengths. Win contender.

2. Blue Stripe (20-1 – Equal Stripes – Marcelo Polanco / Hector Berrios – 10: 6-1-2 - $461,882) Blue Stripe came to America from Argentina last year in time for the Distaff at Del Mar, finishing an uncompetitive seventh. She was given time off and came back in April to win the Santa Margarita (G2) with a stalking trip. After a second in the Santa Maria (G2) in June at Santa Anita, she became a Grade 1 winner in the Clement Hirsch at Del Mar in August. Live long shot.

3. Secret Oath (15-1 – Arrogate – D. Wayne Lukas / Luis Saez – 12: 5-2-3 - $1,708,417) After Secret Oath began the year with three wins from four starts, including a prestigious victory in the Kentucky Oaks, she went winless in her next four races. In those recent races she faced the boys in the Preakness and then ran in three Grade 1 stakes against 3-year-old fillies. She was beaten twice by Nest and then by Society in the Cotillion. Obviously, Secret Oath will not get any class relief in the Distaff, so it is hard to expect her to get back to the winning form she showed earlier. Toss.

4. Clairiere (4-1 – Curlin – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario – 15: 6-4-2 - $1,935,592) Clairiere dominated the older filly and mare division in the first half of the year with a pair of victories over Malathaat in the Ogden Phipps (G1) and the Shuvee (G2). In the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga, Clairiere had problems in the starting gate, was injuried when she banged her head and was uncompetitive. She will make her first start since that day in August and is a bit of a wild card in this Distaff field. Can she come back to compete for the win and find her excellent form? Win contender.

5. Awake At Midnyte (30-1 – Nyquist – Doug O’Neill / Mario Gutierrez – 8: 2-3-1 - $249,675) Along with her maiden victory and an allowance win at Del Mar in September, Awake At Midnyte has a pair of second-place finishes in Grade 2 races in California. One of them was in the Zenyatta last month at Santa Anita. Her owners at Reddam Racing are always willing to face the toughest competition with their horses. This is the most challenging field of Awake At Midnyte’s career. Toss.

6. Nest (9-5 – Curlin – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 10: 7-2-1 - $1,873,050) Since her second-place finish in the Belmont Stakes (G1) Nest has just gotten better and better. She won three graded stakes in New York by open lengths after stalking the early pace and then displayed an impressive burst of speed. Nest beat other 3-year-old fillies in the CCA Oaks (G1) and the prestigious Alabama (G1) and then topped older horses for the first time in the Beldame (G2). She made 10 starts with seven victories and all top three finishes. Remembering her Belmont Stakes performance helped to put her on top of this challenging field. Top choice.

7. Search Results (9-2 – Flatter – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat – 11: 6-2-3 - $1,404,00) Search Results is another filly with a great career record. She got victories in the Acorn (G1) as a 3-year-old and then in the Ruffian (G2) and the Monmouth Oaks (G3) this year. Search Results was competitive against Malathaat and Clairiere, although she did not get a win against them. The Chad Brown filly does her best when she is pressing the pace. Use underneath.

8. Society (6-1 – Gun Runner – Steve Asmussen / Florent Geroux – 6: 5-0-0 - $1,109,775) Society found success in the Cotillion (G1) and the Charles Town Oaks (G3) by going to the lead and staying there. Interestingly, her debut maiden victory came at Keeneland as a 2-year-old with a closing move from sixth place. Still, Steve Asmussen is likely to send her to the lead in the Distaff, which seems to be lacking in early speed. Lone speed.

Summary: There have been great battles in the Distaff between 3-year-olds and older fillies and mares. None was greater than the 2016 stretch duel between Songbird and Beholder, which was decided by the narrowest of margins in that famous photo finish. Beholder won that day, handing Songbird the first defeat of her career. Songbird was the 1.10-1 favorite and Beholder was three times the price at 3.30-1.

As on that day in 2016, the 3-year-old Nest will be the favorite over Malathaat, who is the 3-1 second choice in the morning line with Clairiere listed at 4-1.

It would be no surprise for any of those three fillies to win the Distaff. They each have outstanding credentials coming into the race and are trained by Hall of Famers Todd Pletcher and Steve Asmussen.

Nest will get the nod as top choice, with her performance in the Belmont Stakes being the deciding factor. But there just might be a finish to rival the 2016 Distaff.