Breeders' Cup Distaff 2020: Odds and analysis
For many bettors, their final decisions regarding the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Keeneland hinges on whether Swiss Skydiver runs here or not. Even though her first preference is listed as the Distaff, it remains to be determined whether the Preakness Stakes winner will stay in this spot or tackle males in the Classic.
Otherwise, the fillies and mares expected to enter are all present, including 2018 winner Monomoy Girl. She has won all three starts this year and figures to go off as the slight favorite, or a heavy one if Swiss Skydiver opts for the Classic.
The Distaff is carded as Race 10 with a post time of 3:54 EST.
1. Ce Ce, 15-1 (Elusive Quality – Michael McCarthy/TBA – 9: 4-1-2 - $805,100): Ce Ce’s form earlier in the year was excellent with wins in the Beholder Mile (G1) and Apple Blossom Handicap (G1). But after the Apple Blossom, she was a flat third in the Santa Maria Stakes (G2) with no real excuse.
After a short break, Ce Ce came back with another third in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1) at Del Mar followed by a fourth in the seven-furlong Derby City Distaff (G1) at Churchill Downs. To put a positive spin on those latter two races, a Baffert speed horse did get loose on the lead in the Clement Hirsch, making it difficult for any stalker or closer. In the Derby City Distaff, Ce Ce had to chase a wicked pace closely before feeling the effects of it.
It is hard to tell whether Ce Ce is a bit off form or if McCarthy is simply building towards a peak performance in the Breeders’ Cup. Assuming she draws well and looks good in the mornings, this gal might be interesting to throw in the lower spots. Use underneath.
2. Dunbar Road, 30-1 (Quality Road – Chad Brown/TBA – 10: 6-1-2 - $1,016,040): In last year’s Distaff, this filly opted to lag near the back and close for a mild fifth-place finish. She returned with a conservative campaign this year with wins in the ungraded Shawnee Stakes at Churchill Downs and the Delaware Handicap (G2).
Perhaps running in the Beldame Stakes (G2) afterwards exposed her, as Dunbar Road could only manage a mild third. No one was going to catch Horologist, but the disappointing part is that Point of Honor outkicked her in the stretch for second by 2 ¼ lengths. She meets those same two opponents again, plus Monomoy Girl and possibly Swiss Skydiver. Even though Brown trains this runner, she seems too overmatched on paper to even hit the superfecta. Toss.
3. Harvest Moon, 15-1 (Uncle Mo – Simon Callaghan/TBA – 5: 4-0-1 - $240,720): To Harvest Moon’s credit, she is on a roll after winning the Torrey Pines Stakes (G3) against her own age group and then taking the Zenyatta Stakes (G1) against older. But in the Zenyatta, she only beat three other horses, with only a three-quarter length margin over the runner-up Hard Not to Love and 1 1/2 lengths over Fighting Mad, who are both mild talents at best. Neither of those opponents shows up here, with connections probably realizing they are overmatched. Also, the Torrey Pines runner-up Secret Keeper was an awful eighth in the Raven Run Stakes (G2) at Keeneland. Right now, the Distaff looks like too much, too soon for this improving 3-year-old filly. Toss.
4. Harvey’s Lil Goil (2nd Preference), TBA (American Pharoah – William Mott/TBA – 8: 4-1-1 - $561,529): Will she run in this spot, or the Filly & Mare Turf? Remember that earlier in the year, Harvey’s Lil Goil was dominant in the Busanda Stakes at Aqueduct, winning by 7 ½ lengths. She then attempted the Fantasy Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn and was a dismal 11th, although she did encounter trouble on the first turn.
Two starts after the Fantasy, Mott gave her a chance in the Alabama Stakes (G1) at Saratoga, and she actually made a good move approaching the far turn. But Swiss Skydiver kept going on the front end and Harvey’s Lil Goil gave up in the stretch, even losing the second spot to Bonny South.
In her most recent start, Harvey’s Lil Goil took the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) on turf at Keeneland. But if Mott opts for the Distaff, she is capable of handling the surface and hitting the board at a nice price. As a side note, the dam Gloria S is a half-sister to 2012 Kentucky Derby champion I’ll Have Another. Use underneath.
5. Horologist, 10-1 (Gemologist – William Mott/TBA – 19: 7-2-4 - $695,439): On paper, it seems as if Mott has made this 4-year-old filly more consistent. He has only had three races with Horologist, but in that timespan she won the Molly Pitcher Stakes (G3), ran third behind Monomoy Girl in the La Troienne Stakes (G1) and took the Beldame Stakes (G2) over Point of Honor and Dunbar Road.
Also, Horologist does own useful tactical speed. If the pace heats up too much with Lady Kate on the lead, and if Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver move too early, Horologist can strike first on the turn. More realistically, she is the type of runner to throw in the third or fourth spots of the superfecta. She is capable of giving the leaders a scare though. Use underneath.
6. Lady Kate, 20-1 (Bernardini – Eddie Kenneally/TBA – 13: 5-3-0 - $366,470): This speedball’s chances to last for a piece will largely depend on whether Swiss Skydiver competes here. The task of running on the lead while hounded by Swiss Skydiver, Monomoy Girl and Ollie’s Candy, and putting them all away on the turn, sounds too difficult for this front-runner.
But if Swiss Skydiver opts for the Classic, it would soften the pace a bit. Despite an uncontested lead in the La Troienne Stakes (G1), Lady Kate had to settle for second as Monomoy Girl took control in the stretch. When Lady Kate did not secure the lead in the Spinster Stakes (G1), she ran worse and faded to fourth by nine lengths. She is a good filly, but this is a tough spot. For now, she is in the “Toss” category. If Swiss Skydiver defects, then think about her again. Toss.
7. Monomoy Girl, 9/5 (Tapizar – Brad Cox/TBA – 14: 12-2-0 - $3,386,818): Even with only three races since her 2018 score in this race, Monomoy Girl is the one to beat. She came back with a Churchill Downs optional claiming win in May, and then built off that race with victories in the Ruffian Stakes (G2) over Vexatious and the La Troienne Stakes (G1) over Lady Kate and Horologist.
Monomoy Girl owns tactical speed, which means she does not need to duel with Lady Kate or whoever else wants the lead. With three races under her belt this year, any worries about fitness should disappear.
If Swiss Skydiver decides to try males in the Classic, then the task becomes even easier for Monomoy Girl. But even with Swiss Skydiver’s presence, Monomoy Girl remains the choice. She owns 12 wins and two seconds in 14 starts, which is an outstanding record for a top horse. Also, Swiss Skydiver lacks any experience against older horses, giving Monomoy Girl another edge. Expect Monomoy Girl to give her best effort yet. The pick.
8. Ollie’s Candy, 12-1 (Candy Ride – John Sadler/TBA – 15: 4-6-3 - $910,151): She keeps running second and third. Ollie’s Candy gave an excellent performance in the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) in April, running second to Ce Ce after grabbing the early lead before Serengeti Empress was able and doing all the hard pace work. But Ollie’s Candy never could put herself on top afterwards with a third in the Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1), second in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1) and second in the Spinster (G1).
Do the excuses matter at this point? She keeps finding ways to lose. With that said, she also keeps hitting the board and owns useful tactical speed, or she can attempt to grab the lead again if Lady Kate is slow out of the gate. For bettors searching for a horse to backwheel at double-digit odds, she is one to consider. Use underneath.
9. Point of Honor, 20-1 (Curlin – George Weaver/TBA – 11: 3-5-2 - $684,040): Similar to Ollie’s Candy, this filly has tended to come up just short this season. Since Point of Honor’s victory in the 2019 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2), she has lost seven straight races, including five races this year. But she hit the trifecta in all those starts, which includes a third in the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1), second in the Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1), third in the Personal Ensign Stakes (G1) and a recent runner-up in the Beldame Stakes (G2).
As noted, she outkicked Dunbar Road for second in the Beldame. For those bettors searching for a closer to backwheel, this is another possible choice. She is also useful just being thrown in the bottom slots of the standard pyramid trifecta. With all that said, Point of Honor does need the pace to heat up. Use underneath.
10. Swiss Skydiver (1st Preference), 2-1 (Daredevil – Kenneth McPeek/TBA – 11: 6-3-1 - $1,792,980): Everyone knows Swiss Skydiver by now. When a filly wins the Preakness Stakes, it is a feat that racing fans burn into their hearts. In Swiss Skydiver’s case, she won it in thrilling fashion after outdueling Authentic in the stretch.
Prior to that race, she was second in the Kentucky Oaks to Shedaresthedevil, who came back with a disappointing run in the Spinster Stakes (G1) by finishing third. Swiss Skydiver also won the Alabama Stakes (G1) at Saratoga and ran second to Art Collector in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) in mid-July.
Can she step up and face and face older horses? Even if the speed figures say yes, the results do not always work out that way. But she is obviously a contender, if she runs here. She owns tactical speed and should find herself in the front mix behind Lady Kate before making her move. Win contender.
11. Valiance, 10-1 (Tapit – Todd Pletcher/TBA – 8: 6-0-0 - $469,575): Well, she did capture the Spinster Stakes (G1) after using stalking tactics to win by three-quarters of a length. As stated above though, the runner-up Ollie’s Candy is not exactly a win machine, even if she keeps picking up checks against top company.
Also, Shedaresthedevil made her debut against older horses in that race. Before the Spinster, Valiance ran as a turf horse. Whether she can build off the Spinster victory and pick up a Breeders’ Cup win on dirt depends largely on the pace, which could range anywhere from moderate to fast depending on whether another horse contests the lead with Lady Kate.
It is hard to pick all of the horses to finish underneath, as those trifecta and superfecta tickets can get expensive. She gets the toss designation for now. Perhaps that will change after seeing the final entries and thinking about the pace more. Toss.
Conclusion:
Monomoy Girl is the horse to beat, whether or not Swiss Skydiver runs.
If Swiss Skydiver opts for the Classic, then Monomoy Girl is usable as a key on top in exactas and trifectas, since it eliminates the chance of a Monomoy Girl-Swiss Skydiver exacta with a short payoff. Bettors can get creative in the second spot.
If Swiss Skydiver sticks to the Distaff, then a backwheel strategy might work out better with Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver on top. But even if a longshot finishes second or third though, the presence of the top two will likely depress the payoffs.
A third option is to only use Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver in multi-race wagers and move on.