Breeders’ Cup Classic fair odds: White Abarrio rockets to top

I went into the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes on Aug. 5 at Saratoga expecting to see the Breeders’ Cup Classic favorite emerge victorious, and I wasn’t wrong.

Sure, I was wrong about the horse, expecting to see Cody’s Wish to emerge victorious, but there is very little doubt in my mind that the best performance we’ve seen so far this year was White Abarrio’s Whitney victory.

BC Classic poll: Forte is still no. 1; newcomer joins top 10.

The biggest negative is that trainer Rick Dutrow has said he will train last year’s Florida Derby (G1) winner up to the Breeders’ Cup. A lot can happen in three months on the shelf, but as of right now I cannot make a case for anyone else being a more likely winner of America’s richest race Nov. 4 at Santa Anita.

As for Cody’s Wish, I left him in my top 20 because that effort was too bad to be believed. Yes, Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott said he will train Godolphin’s Cody's Wish for a defense of the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. But I could understand him changing his mind, depending on what happens next. That effort wasn’t bad-at-two-turns bad. It was just bad.

After White Abarrio, it’s a host of 3-year-olds led by last year’s champion 2-year-old male and fellow Florida Derby winner Forte with Kentucky Derby winner Mage, Preakness Stakes winner National Treasure and Belmont Stakes winner Arcangelo in the mix along with Haskell (G1) winner Geaux Rocket Ride.

The Travers (G1) and Pacific Classic Stakes (G1) will tell us a lot more about those 3-year-olds, and maybe one will perform well enough to usurp White Abarrio.

Look for more odds previews on Breeders’ Cup races in the coming weeks as we start to get closer to championship weekend.