Breeders' Cup Classic fair odds: Sovereignty for supremacy
The question over the next eight-plus weeks leading to the Breeders' Cup Classic will not be whether Sovereignty is the favorite for America's richest race or even the most likely winner, but whether he will offer value on Nov. 1 at Del Mar.
Sovereignty certainly was the favorite for the Classic going in to this past weekend, but there was some thought about whether horses such as Nysos in the Pacific Classic (G1) or Mindframe in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) could wrest the favortism mantle from the Kentucky Derby-Belmont Stakes winner by answering the 1 1/4-mile question in their respective races.
Nysos scratched from the Pacific Classic, and Mindframe lost his rider early in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Trainers Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher, respectively, have not ruled out the Classic for either of their horses, but their stock dropped, though through no fault of their own. I do not like horses at short prices when things don't go according to plan in the final stages of preparing for a race.
Sovereignty is the exact opposite of that. Everything has gone right for the Bill Mott trainee, who somehow seems to improve on each stellar performance. The hype train will continue to roll, so there is some concern regarding what price we will get in the Breeders' Cup. But he is the worthy favorite.
Sierra Leone is the obvious alternative to Sovereignty. Last year's Classic winner and champion 3-year-old male just finished second to Antiquarian in the Jockey Club Gold Cup after winning the Whitney Stakes (G1). Sierra Leone encountered plenty of trouble, some in the form of Irad Ortiz Jr. on the track after coming off Mindframe, in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, so that was not necessarily a representative race. If Sovereignty ends up underlaid, then Sierra Leone could be value to repeat.
Four races remain as potential high-level Classic preps: The Pennsylvania Derby (G1) for 3-year-olds and a trio of races for older horses, the Lukas Classic (G2), Woodward (G2) and Goodwood (G1). It would take an incredibly superlative performance out of one of those races to crack a top spot among Classic aspirants, but it is possible. As consistently impressive as Sovereignty has been, his numbers are not so great that a horse getting good at the right time would be easily dismissed as capable of stepping forward.