Breeders' Cup Classic fair odds: Sovereignty changes outlook

No matter where you stood on Sovereignty's chances in the Breeders' Cup Classic, his scratch from the race on Nov. 1 at Del Mar completely changes the complexion of how to approach this race from a wagering standpoint.

 

If you loved him, then you lost a strong single that is difficult to replace. If you didn't love him and were going to try to spread to beat him, then horses who might have been worth using on a spread ticket are harder to use together. And if you're like me and loved a single alternative, Forever Young in my case, then that price is now severely depressed.

 

To wit, Forever Young went from 6-1 fourth choice to 7-2 co-second choice on David Aragona's morning line. The 7-2 is still a good price relative to my 3-1 fair odds, but we're no longer in "this is the only opinion I need to have a great day" territory.

 

I still will lean heavily on Forever Young in horizontal wagers as a single and in vertical wagers as the exotic key. My other vertical pinpoint will be Baeza, the co-sixth choice who ran faster than any other entrant last out, according to Ragozin. Others have run faster in their careers, but at 10-1 morning line I'd love to get Baeza in the number, especially at the expense of underlays Fierceness and Sierra Leone.

 

So why Forever Young? His Grade 1 Saudi Cup victory was the best performance this year. Yes, he reacted to it in the Dubai World Cup (G1). Yes, this is only his second start since that step backward, with the lone run being what amounts to prepping in an allowance at Hawthorne. Yes, I think he can run back to that Saudi Cup, and if does then he likely wins this.

 

If he runs his Saudi Cup race, then any other horse-would have to run a lifetime best as well in order to win. It's the Breeders' Cup Classic, though, so superlative performances are expected. But from a gambling perspective it makes the most sense to bet Forever Young at the expected price to do something he's already done rather than betting anyone else to have a breakthrough performance.

 

Depending on how much Fierceness, Sierra Leone and Mindframe get bet, though, there could be opportunity to use the rest. This is where a wagering service such as AmWager's dutching tool comes in handy. You can plug in a 2, 3, 5, 9, 10 exacta box, and it will weigh the options to return a uniform amount regardless of outcome. I normally say "boxes are for shoes," but when you're tossing the top two choices and three of the top five choices in what is effectively an eight-horse field, as Contrary Thinking obviously is a complete toss, then boxing can make sense, especially with a dutching tool.