BC Classic fair odds: Rethinking Sierra Leone’s chances

Familiar readers of this space know we love our data here at Horse Racing Nation, so I’m just going to rip the bandage off and tell you that my evidence for the pet theory I’m about to share is anecdotal at best.

But it is rooted in a lot of history dating back to the 2000s when I was news editor for the now-defunct Thoroughbred Times. Stallion announcements were a big thing for the trade publication, and after a few years of going through the cycle in October and November, I noticed that the horses who had announcements after the Breeders’ Cup performed better than those with announcements before the Breeders’ Cup.

That is why I’ve lengthened, slightly, Sierra Leone’s fair odds for the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Nov. 1 at Del Mar. Obviously he can still win and is a top contender, but this news sends him further into underlay status in my mind.

Other changes since last we spoke include Fierceness’s odds of winning going up a touch and Banishing replacing Delacroix as a long shot in the lineup.

Three-time Grade 1 winner Sovereignty remains the most likely winner but will be a certain underlay against elders for the first time. Forever Young, winner of the Saudi Cup (G1), is my expected value.