Breeders’ Cup Classic fair odds: Older is the wiser bet

Our fair-odds journey toward the Breeders' Cup Classic began before the Travers Stakes in August and ends Saturday after 1 1/4 miles on the main track at Del Mar.

I have maintained throughout that Fierceness is the most likely winner of the western hemisphere's richest race, and nothing about the champion's training or post draw has talked me off that opinion.

Unfortunately, most likely winner does not mean value, and Fierceness is a likely underlay come race 8 on Saturday. I have Fierceness as 5-1 to win this race, and as the 3-1 second choice on the morning line, that makes him a tough play to lean on. 

There are some things, however, that make it possible to keep him in the mix. First and foremost is that the morning-line favorite, City of Troy, is a certain underlay. I have the multiple European Group 1 winner on turf as 8-1 to win his dirt debut. As the 5-2 morning line choice, he is impossible to like in any wager.

That leaves the two Japan-based horses, Forever Young and Ushba Tesoro, has likely wagering options. The former was my pick to win this year's Kentucky Derby, and he missed by two noses. That is his only loss, and I would not talk anyone off him at the expected price.

But Usha Tesoro is 12-1 on the morning line and 7-1 on my fair odds, making him a great play. I loved him in the first half of the year when he ran well but not good enough to win either the Saudi Cup or Dubai World Cup. He made a nice move in last year's Classic and flattened out. If he improves off that against these, then he's in the mix. That's obviously a gamble, but we're getting the right price.

Long-shot-wise, Pyrenees and Newgate are two horses I will use liberally with Forever Young, Ushba Tesoro and Fierceness. Pyreness has good Ragozin numbers, and I think he can get a similar trip as Sierra Leone with a better finish at a bigger price. Newgate is kinda wiseguy-ey, but there's just too much money to be spread around here for him to end up unplayable.

The two horses I've cooled on the most the past few weeks are Señor Buscador and Tapit Trice. The former just went the wrong way in his last start, and it's hard to see him offering any value to return to top form off that. Tapit Trice is likely to get overbet off the dub, but his numbers don't stack up.

My wagering strategy is to bet Ushba Tesoro to win. Because I am against Thorpedo Anna in the Distaff, from a multi-race perspective, I'm comfortable using all of Forever Young, Ushba Tesoro and Fierceness on my main ticket.